Soybeans are shrugging off the overnight double digit losses on Wednesday, ignoring potential Trade War fears from a Trump presidency. One election promise from the President-elect was tariffs, likely on China, though this comes after late January’s inauguration and is post the peak US soybean shipping season. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price is steady at $9.45 1/2. Soymeal futures are back down $2.10/ton on the session. Soy Oil futures were back up 177 points on the day, as potential Chinese tariffs would limit imports of used cooking oil as a biodiesel feedstock.
Thursday morning will show weekly Export Sales data with soybean bookings for the week of 10/31 seen at 1.2 to 2.2 MMT for the current MY. Sales for 2025/26 are for 0 to 100,000 MT. Meal sales are seen at 150,000 MT to 560,000 MT in total during that week. Bean oil sales are expected at 0 to 60,000 MT.
Crop Production data will be updated on Friday morning by the USDA, with a Reuters survey of analysts expecting to see 52.8 bpa for yield, a 0.3 bpa drop from last month if realized. The trade range is from 52.1 to 53.8 bpa. Production estimates are running from 4.495 to 4.64 bbu, with an average at 4.557 bbu and down from 4.582 bbu in October.
With a smaller expected production, US ending stocks are expected to slip lower in the WASDE update, with analysts looking for an 18 mbu reduction to 532 mbu. The range of estimates is from 475 to 585 mbu.
Nov 24 Soybeans are at $9.92, down 1 3/4 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $9.45 1/2, down 0 cent,
Jan 25 Soybeans are at $10.01 1/4, down 1/2 cent,
May 25 Soybeans are at $10.27, down 3 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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