Soybeans are lower on Monday morning with contracts down 18 to 20 cents in the nearbys Soybeans settled steady to 12 cents lower on Friday. Deferred contracts beyond August 2025 were fractionally to 7 ¼ cents higher. CME group reported volume of 251,360 for Friday, with open interest a one month high of 829,321 contracts. Options trading volume was highest in the November 1200 calls and Nov 1000 puts. Soymeal added some pressure to the market, with contracts steady in the deferred to $3.60 lower in the August contract, as July rolled off the board. Soy Oil ended the day with losses of 44 to 56 points.
On the US side of USDA’s balance sheet update, the WAOB took the old crop soybean ending stocks down 5 mbu to 345 mbu on a cut to imports. The new crop total was trimmed by 20 mbu to 435 mbu. Output was cut by 15 mbu to 4.435 bbu on the drop to 86.1 million planted and 85.3 million harvested acres and yield left at 52 bpa.
USDA’s Brazil soybean production estimate was unchanged at 153 MMT on Friday, as CONAB left theirs at 147.33 MMT on Thursday morning. The projected 2024/25 crop was held at 169 MMT, with an initial Safras & Mercado estimate pegging the crop at 171.54 MMT. Both are citing larger acreage. As for Argentina the bean crop was trimmed by 0.5 to 49.5 MMT. World soybean stocks for the 2023/24 crop were up by just .18 MMT to 111.25 MMT. For new crop the smaller US number helped take the world stocks total to 127.76 MMT, a 0.14 MMT drop.
The large managed money spec funds held a record CFTC net short position as of July 9 @ 172,605 contracts. That was an increase of 31,679 contracts to the bear side on the week.
Updated NOPA data will be released today, with a Reuters survey of estimates looking for 177.94 mbu of bean crushed in June. That would be a 7.8% increase from last year if realized and a record for the month. NOPA member soy oil stocks are projected at 1.669 billion lbs at the end of June.
Chinese customs data showed the country’s June soybean imports at 11.11 MMT, an improvement over the 10 MMT last year. The January through June imports have totaled 48.48 MMT, which is down 2.2% from a year ago.
Nearby Cash was $10.72 5/8, down 12 3/4 cents,
Aug 24 Soybeans closed at $11.05, down 12 cents, currently down 19 1/4 cents
Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $10.65 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents, currently down 19 3/4 cents
New Crop Cash was $10.11 3/4, down 3 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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