Chartstopper: July 24, 2026

This Week

There were three major themes this week: the Iran conflict, tariffs and artificial intelligence (AI) investment costs.

1. Iran conflict: U.S. oil prices reach seven-week high amid a new blockade and fading hope for a ceasefire. U.S. oil prices are back up to $90 per barrel after continued attacks between the U.S. and Iran (with talk of escalation), the Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi ports in the Red Sea and then attacked two Saudi oil tankers, and Iran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal.
2. Tariffs announced this week likely to have modest impact. Yesterday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on more than 80 countries, taking effect at 12:01am this morning. And, earlier this week, President Trump announced new 50% tariffs on a selection of Canadian goods, set to take effect on Aug. 19. The effects of both tariffs are expected to be relatively small since the new 10% to 12.5% tariffs largely replaced the now-expired 10% global tariff enacted after the Supreme Court disallowed the tariffs applied via the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) back in February, and the new 50% tariff only applies to about 5% of Canadian goods exported to the U.S.
3. AI spending contributes to GOOG and TSLA selloffs. On Wednesday, GOOG reported nearly 300% year-over-year (YOY) earnings growth for the second quarter, while TSLA missed earnings estimates, putting the Nasdaq-100® on pace for 58% YOY earnings growth. However, AI-related capital expenditures were a clear focus for markets – with GOOG upping its 2026 spending plan $15 billion to $200 billion and TSLA reaffirming spending over $25 billion this year – contributing to declines in both stocks.

So, inflation concerns helped boost 10-year Treasury yields more than 10 basis points this week to around 4.7% – a 1½-year high – while AI spending concerns contributed to the 2% decline in the Nasdaq-100®.

Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

• Tuesday: Conference Board Consumer Confidence (July)
• Wednesday: Fed Rate Decision, META & MSFT Earnings (Q2)
• Thursday: Real GDP Growth (Q2), PCE Inflation & Spending (Jun.), AAPL & AMZN Earnings (Q2)
• Friday: Employment Cost Index (Q2)