Chartstopper: July 2, 2026

This Week

The Federal Reserve was in focus this week, with the June jobs report, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first comments since the June 17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the Supreme Court ruling that Fed Governor Cook cannot be fired for now.

The jobs report disappointed, adding 57,000 jobs in June – just half of expectations. Plus, the two prior months were revised down by 74,000 jobs combined. Still, the labor market looks relatively healthy, averaging a gain of 92,000 jobs per month over the last six months – its highest average gain since early last year.

Chair Warsh, however, was more focused on inflation, saying anyone thinking the Fed would tolerate inflation above its 2% target would be “disappointed.”  Still, he noted that inflation risks have come down in recent weeks. After the softer jobs report, markets expect about 30 basis points (bp) in Fed hikes this year, down from 35bp earlier this week.

Beyond the Fed, this week saw trade deal news and developments in negotiations with Iran:

• Trade: The U.S. declined to extend the free trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada for 16 years, setting off a countdown of annual reviews for the next 10 years before it can expire. However, it’s still possible to eventually extend a renegotiated version of the deal.
• Iran: U.S. negotiators held “positive” talks, helping push U.S. oil prices a bit lower to $68 per barrel.

For the week, the Nasdaq-100® was roughly flat, while 10-year Treasury yields rose about 10bp to 4.5%.

Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

• Monday: ISM Services PMI (June)
• Wednesday: Fed Meeting Minutes (June)
• Thursday: Jobless Claims (Week Ending July 4)