Bitcoin is enjoying another strong year with 56.74% gains thus far in 2024. However, since March, the price action has been choppy, frustrating, and Bitcoin has failed to print a fresh high. Nevertheless, strong evidence is mounting that Bitcoin is ready to breakout into 2025, including:
Bitcoin Monthly Bull Flag Pattern
Though the short-term price action has been challenging to navigate, savvy investors understand the value of zooming out while analyzing a chart. Bitcoin’s monthly chart is carving out a picture-perfect bull flag pattern. Should the pattern play out as the technical pattern suggests, Bitcoin should see prices north of $100,000 in the first half of 2025.
Image Source: TradingView
FTX Repayments are a Potential Bullish Catalyst
A massive fraud led to the collapse and subsequent bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange in 2022. After a brutal “crypto winter,” FTX clients could not withdraw funds, and many feared they would all be lost. Fortunately, in a twist of fate, Bitcoin and most crypto assets have appreciated handsomely since the 2022 FTX collapse, and clients are expected to get their funds paid back in total, with interest. Former FTX clients will receive approximately $16 billion in funds as soon as December. As FTX victims (who likely assumed their funds were gone for good) receive repayment, it could spark a rally in Bitcoin as at some of them reinvest their funds.
Bitcoin Seasonality: “Uptober”
Historically, fall has been the best time to be long Bitcoin. Since 2010, October has averaged a robust 29.5%, and November has averaged 37.9%.
Image Source: Glassnode, ETC Group
IBIT Options Approval
Though Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset since its inception, Wall Street has only embraced it recently. This January, the institutional dominoes began to fall after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission finally approved several spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). A particularwatershed moment for the crypto industry wasBlackRock’s (BLK) launch of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). IBIT was the most successful ETF of all time, attaining over $10 billion in assets in under two months. Meanwhile, IBIT’s price performance has been a net positive since inception, gaining nearly 50% thus far.
On September 20th, news broke that the SEC approved options trading for the Bitcoin ETF. Options on IBIT will open the Bitcoin industry to a news type of trader, and other Bitcoin ETFs will likely gain approval in the coming months. Meanwhile, several leveraged Bitcoin ETFs, like the 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX), are live and give investors even more flexibility.
Institutional Adoption
Dozens of countries, ETFs, private companies, and public companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) continue to adopt Bitcoin as access becomes easier. This constant accumulation should put a floor under the price of Bitcoin.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s price action has been frustrating of late, but the odds of a breakout to $100,000 are increasing dramatically. The FTX repayment, IBIT options approval, and institutional adoption are some bullish catalysts that should drive Bitcoin much higher in 2025.
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MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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