Assurant, Inc. AIZ is slated to report third-quarter 2024 earnings on Nov. 5, after the closing bell. AIZ delivered an earnings surprise in each of the last four quarters, the average beat being 33.56%.
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Factors to Note
Solid performance at the Global Housing segment, as well as growth in Global Lifestyle, is likely to have aided the third-quarter performance of Assurant.
Revenues are likely to have benefited from improved net earned premiums and higher net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.91 billion, suggesting growth of 4.2% from the year-ago quarter’s level.
Net earned premiums are expected to have benefited from higher premiums in the Global Housing and Global Lifestyle segments.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter net earned premiums, fees and other income is pegged at $2.4 billion. We expect net earned premiums to be $2.3 billion in the to-be-reported quarter. We expect fees and other income to increase 36.8% to $424.7 million in the third quarter.
Net investment income is likely to have gained from higher yields and asset balances in fixed maturity securities, cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter net investment income is pegged at $127 million, suggesting an improvement of 0.7% from the year-ago reported number. We expect net investment income to increase 4.2% to $130.7 million.
Global Housing is expected to have been driven by Homeowners from higher lender-placed policies in-force and average insured values, as well as higher premium rates to address increased claims severity. Exits from certain international markets are likely to have offset the decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $621 million. We expect the segment’s revenues to be $577 million.
Global Lifestyle is expected to have benefited from growth from global mobile device protection programs in Connected Living and from prior period sales in Global Automotive.
The uptick is likely to have been partially offset by a decline in extended service contracts in Connected Living. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.3 billion. We expect the segment’s revenues to increase 5.2% to $2.3 billion.
Total benefits, losses and expenses might have escalated because of higher underwriting and selling, general and administrative expenses. We expect total expenses to be $2.5 billion.
Continued share buybacks are likely to have aided the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.64 per share, suggesting a decline of 38.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Assurant this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.
Earnings ESP: Assurant has an Earnings ESP of -5.30%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.50 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.64. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Assurant, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Assurant, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Assurant, Inc. Quote
Zacks Rank: AIZ carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Stocks to Consider
Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
Enact Holdings, Inc. ACT has an Earnings ESP of +10.89% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.01, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 0.9%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ACT’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. BHF has an Earnings ESP of +1.21% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $4.50, indicating a year-over-year increase of 7.6%.
BHF’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.
Primerica, Inc. PRI has an Earnings ESP of +1.10% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $4.78, indicating a year-over-year increase of 11.6%.
BHF’s earnings beat estimates in two of the last four reported quarters and missed in the other two.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
