セカンダリー市場の現状

[ローリー] こんにちは、Nasdaq Fund Secondariesによるウェブキャストシリーズ「State of Secondaries」へようこそ。私はローリー・メイベンで、Nasdaqのこちらのチームで機関投資家側を担当しています。このシリーズでは、private marketsのリーダーたちと共に、現代の情勢を形作る重要なテーマについて議論します。そして今日は、Antares CapitalのLiquidity SolutionsのManaging Directorであり、Credit Secondariesの責任者であるOlga Kostersをお迎えし、セカンダリーマーケットにおけるプライベートクレジットの最近の成長について話し合います。ようこそ、オルガ。[Rory] Hello, and welcome to the State of Secondaries, a webcast series from Nasdaq Fund Secondaries. I'm Rory Maben, and I lead the institutional side of our team here at Nasdaq. In this series, we sit down with leaders across private markets to discuss key themes shaping today's landscape. And today we're joined by Olga Kosters, Managing Director of Liquidity Solutions and the Head of Credit Secondaries at Antares Capital, to discuss the recent growth of private credit within the secondaries market. Welcome, Olga.

[Olga] 招待してくれてありがとう、ローリー。ここに来られて嬉しいです。[Olga] Thank you for having me, Rory. Nice to be here.

[Rory] It's so great to have you with us. In today's conversation, we'll focus on the evolution and acceleration of the credit secondaries market, the rise of GP-led credit secondaries. We'll consider the influence of current financial conditions on market trends, and we'll assess the key factors and risks that will likely determine the credit continuation vehicle performance in the coming 12 to 24 months. We'll start with a little bit of context-setting. So private credit secondaries has moved from a niche strategy to rapidly growing segment of the secondary market. From your perspective, what structural shifts have driven the acceleration, and how has the market growth influenced your personal involvement in this space?

[Olga] I've been an investor for more than 26 years now, and the last six-plus years, I focused on credit secondaries. When I got seed capital in 2019 and launched my first credit secondaries fund, back then, the first question that investors would ask, "Is there a market?" And now, of course, nobody is asking that question. So based on some of the stat from the brokers, the last year volume of closed deals in the market was about 20 billion, so the market has grown quite a bit. And I think it's entering in a very interesting stage right now. It's after this accelerated stage of growth, the market is maturing, bringing more institutional investors. And what's interesting is the trends that got us here and what's going to happen from now on. So the trends that got us here were, well, first of all, the private credit has grown quite a bit. So now it stands at around 1.5 to 2 trillion. And it's a very illiquid asset class, so people are searching for liquidity, it's natural, and that's a tailwind for credit secondaries. And then on the other side, credit secondaries are following in the footsteps of private equity secondaries market, where there was a development of legal framework, legal blueprint. In a way, credit secondaries are following and adopting some of those legal tools that were developed on the private equity side. This is what brought us here. In terms of how it's going to evolve from here, I think in my opinion, successful credit investors, credit secondaries investors, need two things. They need experienced teams with very sophisticated credit underwriting. And then on the other side, they need deep pools of capital. So when this opportunity to join Antares presented itself one and a half years ago, I thought it was very interesting. Antares has more than 30 years of underwriting credit and private markets, so it has a really strong backbone of underwriting. And also, they're very strong partners with CPP Investments. A very well-capitalized and sophisticated investor in its own right. So I think those two are making a very good basis for successful credit secondaries investments.

[ローリー] そうですね、それは非常に理にかなっていると思いますし、今日の市場で注目すべき分野であることは明らかです。まずは進化に焦点を当て、その後で現在の状況について少し詳しくお話しします。あなたの視点から、プライベートクレジットの進化がどのようにして投資家の関心を高める条件を作り出しているのでしょうか?そして、なぜクレジットがセカンダリー市場で特に魅力的な分野なのでしょうか?[Rory] Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense and obviously this is a great space to be in today and we'll continue to kind of focus on the evolution first and then we'll talk a little bit more about the current context. From your perspective, how does the evolution of private credit create the conditions for growing interest from investors? And why is credit such a compelling area within secondaries?

[オルガ] ローリー、私は投資家がクレジットセカンダリーに興味を持っていると思います。それは二つの理由からです。非常に安定した環境では、クレジットセカンダリーは多様化を提供し、収入の非常に安定した基盤を提供し、既存のポートフォリオと資産の引受に非常に良い視点を提供します。そして、より不安定な市場では、この流動性プレミアムを収穫することができます。したがって、安定した市場では投資家は安定した収入を得、不安定な市場では流動性収穫からの潜在的な上昇を得ることができます。流動性フェーズが流動性の高価格に変わるとき、私はこれがクレジット投資家に資本を保護し、潜在的なアウトパフォーマンスのクッションを提供すると考えています。[Olga] Rory, I think investors have been interested in credit secondaries since I had those conversations. And the reason is twofold. In very stable environment, credit secondaries provide diversification, provide very stable basis for income and provide a very good lens on underwriting existing portfolios and assets. And in more volatile markets, this liquidity premium can be harvested. So in stable markets, investors get stable income, and in volatile markets, they potentially get an upside from liquidity harvesting. stable income, and in volatile markets, they potentially get an upside from liquidity harvesting. Because when liquidity phase turns into higher price for liquidity, I think this provides credit investors with a cushion for protecting capital and potential outperformance.

[ローリー] そうですね。それは非常に理にかなっています。セカンダリーマーケットの異なるセグメントに焦点を当てると、GP主導のクレジットセカンダリーが増加していることがわかります。例えば、最近発表されたAresとの取引があります。この分野でより多くのGP主導の継続車両が生まれる条件について少しお話しいただけますか?[Rory] Yeah. That makes a lot of sense. And if we focus on kind of different segments of the secondary market, let's take a look at GP-led credit secondaries. So we're seeing a rise in GP-led credit continuation vehicles. So for example, your recently announced deal with Ares. Can we talk a little bit more about what created the conditions for more GP-led CVs in this space? kind of different segments of the secondary market, let's take a look at GP-led credit secondaries. So we're seeing a rise in GP-led credit continuation vehicles. So for example, your recently announced deal with Ares. Can we talk a little bit more about what created the conditions for more GP-led CVs in this space?

[Olga] 市場は年々より制度化されてきたと思います。GP主導の取引、GPはgeneral partnersを指し、これらの継続車両は、基本的に新しいファンドが形成され、資産のポートフォリオがこれらのファンドに移行するための種として使用されます。過去数年間、GP主導の取引はすべてのクレジットセカンダリー市場の大部分を占めました。なぜこれが起こったのでしょうか。一方では、多くの資本形成がありました。再び、多くの機関投資家が市場に参入し、潜在的な継続車両や取引のために多くの資本が提供されました。そして、GPの観点から、彼らは市場の深さについて比較的良い見解がない限り、取引を開始したくありません。そして、彼らは取引が成功することを本当に確信したいのです。それが一つの要因でした。他の要因は、成熟度に戻ると、クレジットセカンダリーに非常に大きな関心があり、それがブローカーの関心を引き付けます。彼らは本当により積極的になろうとし、CVは異なるニーズに応え、異なるソリューションを提供できます。あるGPはLPに流動性を提供したいと考えています。あるGPは資金調達の勢いを強化したいと考えています。彼らの中には、いくつかの小規模ファンドを統合してより大きなファンドにしたいと考えている人もいます。これらすべてのニーズは調整可能です。そして、ブローカーはさまざまなGPとの非常に積極的な関与を発展させました。そして最後に、あなたの指摘に関連して、Aresとの取引について言及しました。市場に参入する非常に評価の高いブルーチップのGPが多数いました。したがって、他のGPがこのトレンドに従うための非常に大きな要因であると思います。そして、それは非常に成功した取引環境であることが証明されています。したがって、その観点から、将来的により多くのGP主導の取引が行われる道を開いたと思います。[Olga] I think the market has become more institutionalized over the years. So GP-leds, GP stand for general partners, are leading the deals, and those continuation vehicles, essentially new funds that are being formed, where a portfolio of assets is used as a seed to move into those funds. And in the last several years, GP-leds took a lion's share of all the credit secondaries markets. So why has it happened? On the one hand, there was a lot of capital formation. So again, a lot of institutional investors coming into the market, a lot of capital provided for potential continuation vehicles and deals. And from a GP perspective, they don't want to launch a deal unless they have a relatively good view on depth of the market. And they really want to ensure that the deal is going to be successful. So that was one factor. The other factors were more so with, again, going back to maturity, there is a very large interest in credit secondaries, and that drives brokers' interest. So they really try to be more active, and CVs can answer different needs and provide different solutions. Some GPs want to provide liquidity for the LPs. Some GPs want to enhance the momentum in fundraising. Some of them are looking to merge several subscale funds into a bigger fund. So all of those needs can be tailored. And brokers have developed a very kind of active engagement with various GPs. And the last but not least, I would say to your point, you mentioned the deal with Ares. There was a number of blue-chip, very well-respected GPs coming to the market. So I think it's a very big factor for other GPs following the trend. And it's proven to be a very successful deal-making environment. So I think that from that perspective, that sort of paved the way for more GP-leds to be done in the future.

[ローリー] そうですね、それは非常に理にかなっています。そして、あなたは多くのことに触れました。数分後にエコシステムについてさらに話しますが、LPにとっての今日のキーワードであるアライメントに本当に焦点を当てたいと思います。クレジットGP主導の取引を考えるとき、取引の結果を導く際に資産選択と構造的要素はどれほど重要ですか?そして、それが従来のLP主導のセカンダリーと比べてどのように取引のダイナミクスを変えるのでしょうか?[Rory] Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And you touched on a number of things. We'll talk more about the ecosystem in a few minutes, but want to really focus on kind of the word of the day for LPs, which is alignment, right? So when you're thinking about these types of deals in credit GP-leds, how important are asset selection and kind of structural elements when it comes to driving outcomes in the transactions? And how does that optionality sort of change the deal dynamics as opposed to a traditional LP-led secondary?

[Olga] 私はキャリアをアナリストとしてプライベートエクイティチーム、金融機関グループで始めました。私たちがしていたことは、基本的に今私がしていることを異なる文脈で行っていたのです。銀行の資産と負債の両方を見て、それらの銀行の持分にどれだけ支払うかを考えていました。現在に至るまで、すべてのGP主導の取引とLP主導の取引には、引受の2つの特定の側面が含まれています。一方では、資産側がどのようになっているか、つまり貸借対照表の左側を理解することに非常に関心があります。他方では、貸借対照表の右側の構造がどのようになっているかを理解したいと思っています。あなたが指摘したことは非常に重要です。資産を選択するオプションはありますか?ポートフォリオを構築するこのオプションはありますか?もしない場合、提示された資産をどのように価格設定するかです。これは資産側の非常に深い引受デューデリジェンスプロセスです。負債側も同様に重要であり、それは構造要素に関するあなたの質問に戻ります。なぜなら、負債側が資産と一致しない場合、全体的なビークルのパフォーマンスが最適でない可能性があるからです。したがって、私たちのデューデリジェンスプロセスでは、両方を見ます。そして、これがどのようにして確信を得るかだと思います。そして、一部の高い確信を持つ取引では、左側と右側の両方が機能しなければなりません。市場の参加者について少し話しましたが、GPとLPの直接的な関係、および二次購入者も含まれます。どうやってその相互関係が、クレジットセカンダリーズエコシステムの再形成を本当に推進するのでしょうか?歴史的に、ファンドオブファンズはセカンダリーズの推進をリードしており、それは非常に常識的でした。彼らは多くの投資とファンドを持っていました。彼らはファンドの情報フローを持っていました。彼らはリミテッドパートナーとGP、LPとGPとの関係を持っていたので、伝統的なLP主導のクレジットセカンダリーズの成長を推進するのに非常に良い立場にありました。ええ。それ以来何が起こったかというと、AntaresのようなGPは、ファンドだけでなく、ファンド内の資産をラインごとに引き受けることができることを理解しました。そしてそれは彼らの強みを活かします。その点で、Antaresや市場に参入した他のGPのような人々は、引受に焦点を当てており、異なる市場参加者との関係を築いてきました。LPとしてではないかもしれませんが、ビジネスに30年以上携わってきた中で築いた広範な関係ネットワークを持っています。したがって、引受と関係の両方の側面が機能すると思います。CVの立ち上げを検討しているジェネラルパートナーにとって重要なのは、情報が保護されていることです。私たちが行ったこと、そして多くの市場参加者が行ったことは、壁を作ったことです。Antares Liquidity Solutionsビジネスを独立したビジネスとして作り、私たちのチーム、グループ、ビジネスの外に情報が漏れないように保護しています。これはクレジットセカンダリーズ、プライベートエクイティセカンダリーズのためのテーブルステークスです。これは私たちが発明したものではありませんが、情報を保護することがどれほど重要かを理解しています。したがって、この質問に答え、評判やビジネスを危険にさらさないように、壁を構築するのに多くの時間と注意を費やしています。[Olga] So I started my career as an analyst within the private equity team, financial institutions group. So what we were doing, we were essentially doing what I'm doing now but in a different context. So we were looking at banks, both assets and liabilities, and trying to figure out how much we were going to pay for stakes in those banks. So fast-forward to now, every GP-led deal and actually LP-led deals, so includes two specific aspects of an underwriting. So on the one hand, we're very keen on understanding what the asset side is like, so the left side of the balance sheet. On the other side, we do want to understand what the structure looks like on the right side of the balance sheet. What you pointed to is very important. Do we have an optionality to select assets? Do we have this optionality to construct the portfolio? And if not, how we can price the assets that we're presented with. Right? So this is a very deep underwriting due diligence process on the asset side. The liability side is just as important, and that's back to your question on the structuring elements. Because if the liability side does not match what we have on the asset, that may create suboptimal performance for the vehicle overall. So I think in our due diligence process, we'll look at both. And I think that's how we drive the conviction. And for some of the high-conviction deals, both left side and right side have to work. So we've talked a little bit about the participants in the market, both the GPs and the LPs, which are the direct relationship, as well as the secondary buyers. How do kind of the interrelationships, how do relationships at their core really drive the reshaping of the credit secondaries ecosystem? Historically, fund of funds were leading the drive for secondaries, and that was very common sense, right? They had a lot of investments and funds. They had an information flow for funds. They have relationship with limited partners and GPs, LPs and GPs, so they were in a very good position to drive the growth in traditional LP-led credit secondaries. Yeah. What has happened since then is that GPs like Antares have figured that they can also underwrite not just the funds but also line-by-line assets within those funds, and that plays to their strengths. So in that regard, people like Antares and other GPs who entered the market, they're focused on underwriting, and they do have relationships that they formed across different market participants, maybe not as an LP, but they do have a wide network of relationships that they formed over three decades of being in the business. So I think both underwriting and relationship aspects work What's important for general partners who are considering launching the CV is that their information is protected. So what we have done, and many other market participants have done, we've created a wall. So we've created Antares Liquidity Solutions business as a standalone business, and we protect the information we receive from leaking outside of our team, of our group, our business. This is table stakes for credit secondaries, private equity secondaries. This is not something we invented, but we understand how important it is to protect the information. And hence, we spend a lot of time and attention building the wall so that we can answer this question and not jeopardize our reputation or our business.

[ローリー] そうですね。それはとても納得できます。[Rory] Sure. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

[Olga] そして再び、それらの関係の完全性を本当に保護することです。

[ローリー] 現在の市場動向に目を向けましょう。過去6か月以上にわたり、プライベートエクイティにおけるクレジットについて多くの議論がありました。現在の市場状況が、セカンダリーマーケットに持ち込まれるクレジット資産の種類やこれらの取引の構造にどのように影響を与えているか、あなたの視点をお聞かせください。[Rory] So let's kind of turn our focus to what's happening in the current market. There's been a lot of talk about credit in private equity in the last six-plus months. So how are current market conditions, from your perspective, really influencing the types of credit assets being brought to the secondary market and the way that these deals are structured? In the current market there's been a lot of talk about credit in private equity in the last six-plus months. So how are current market conditions, from your perspective, really influencing the types of credit assets being brought to the secondary market and the way that these deals are structured?

[Olga] Sure. Well, we're recording this on 31st of March. Yeah. So without going into every specific headline, there's quite a lot. Sure. I would put them in two broad buckets. So one bucket is to do with valuations, and the other one is with liquidity. So when, as a credit secondaries investor, we assess a pool of assets, a portfolio, a specific loan that sits in the fund, we approach it from a perspective of how we value it. And if there is any delta and a difference between the valuations that we see and where we assign the value to it. So I think in that regard, having an ability to look through and underwrite loans in the portfolios that we see is a very important feature. And sometimes, our assessment differs from the valuations that we see. So that drives the price. So the other aspect of it is the liquidity. As we talked about, private credit is an illiquid asset class, so people searching for liquidity in the current market, in the past, in the future, is something that, what we were designed for. That's right. This is what credit secondary strategy is for. So I think providing liquidity in times like this is something that we will look forward to do for both GPs and LPs. So from our perspective, depending how it's going to play out, there is a lag, but that will lead to more interesting opportunities coming our way, hopefully where we can provide liquidity solutions. So without going into every specific headline, there's quite a lot. I would put them in two broad buckets. So one bucket is to do with valuations, and the other one is with liquidity. So when, as a credit secondaries investor, we assess a pool of assets, a portfolio, a specific loan that sits in the fund, we approach it from a perspective of how we value it. And if there is any delta and a difference between the valuations that we see and where we assign the value to it. So I think in that regard, having an ability to look through and underwrite loans in the portfolios that we see is a very important feature. And sometimes, our assessment differs from the valuations that we see. So that drives the price. So the other aspect of it is the liquidity. As we talked about, private credit is an illiquid asset class, so people searching for liquidity in the current market, in the past, in the future, is something that, what we were designed for. This is what credit secondary strategy is for. So I think providing liquidity in times like this is something that we will look forward to do for both GPs and LPs. So from our perspective, depending how it's going to play out, there is a lag, but that will lead to more interesting opportunities coming our way, hopefully where we can provide liquidity solutions.

[ローリー] それは非常に理にかなっていると思います。そして私たちの視点からも、今後GPsが流動性へのアプローチについてより慎重になると強く信じています。これは未来を見据えるための完璧なつなぎです。私は常にこれらのセグメントを次に来るものを見据えて終えるのが好きです。クレジット継続車両の最終的なパフォーマンスを判断するにはまだ早いかもしれませんが、近い将来に強い結果を支える要因は何だと考えますか?そして、次の12から24ヶ月間で投資家が最も注意を払うべきことは何でしょうか?[Rory] I think that makes a lot of sense. And from our perspective, we also very much believe that kind of going forward, GPs are going to start to be a lot more thoughtful about their approach to liquidity. Which is a perfect segue to the look toward the future. I always like to end these segments with an eye toward what's coming next. So it may still be pretty early on to judge the ultimate performance of credit continuation vehicles, but what factors do you believe will continue to kind of underpin strong outcomes in the near term? And then what should investors watch most closely over the next 12 to 24 months?

[オルガ] 両面において非常に良い質問です。過去を振り返ると、取引が良好に進むために役立った要因は何でしょうか?資産選択のオプショナリティです。それがない場合は、非常に非常に厳格な価格設定です。そしてそれは資産側、バランスシートの左側にあります。ストレスを受けた売り手の立場にない構造と組み合わせていることも重要な考慮事項だと思います。そしてそれをストレステストし、それが私たちのプロセスの進め方です。資産側と構造そのものに対する強い確信を持つことが非常に重要だと思います。そして私の経験では、それらの取引は優れた成果を上げました。今後、マーケットがいくつかの評価課題をどのように消化するかを見るのは興味深いと思います。そして自己規制メカニズムがあります。市場の一部がNAVで資産を購入しなければならない場合、GPsが評価を実際と一致させることに動機付けられているため、自己規制のポイントを見逃していると思います。これは自己強化型の自己規制プロセスだと思います。もう一つ興味深いのは、マーケットの変動性とクレジットセカンダリーズで起こることの間にラグがあると述べましたが、LP主導の取引の流れを見ることです。昨年、LP主導の取引は継続車両と比較して市場の非常に小さな部分でした。それが増加するかどうかを見ていきます。これは私たちが注目していることです。そしてそれがどのように展開するかを見ていきます。[Olga] Very good questions on both fronts. So looking in the past, what factors helped for the deals to perform well? The optionality on asset selection. In the absence of that, a very, very disciplined pricing. And that's on the asset side, the left side of the balance sheet. Coupled with a structure where we're not in the position of a stressed seller. I think that's an important consideration as well, and we stress test it, so that's how we go through our process. So I think having the high conviction on both asset side and the structure itself matters a lot. And those deals, in my experience, outperformed. Looking forward, I think it will be interesting to see how the market metabolizes some of the valuation challenges. The other thing that may be interesting to watch, and I've mentioned that there is a lag between the market volatility and what happens on credit secondaries, but what will be interesting to watch is a flow of LP-led deals. Last year, LP-led deals were a very minimal fraction of the market compared to continuation vehicles. We'll see if that picks up. I think this is something that we're watching. And we'll see how it plays out.

[ローリー] 本当に、本当に興味深いダイナミクスがここで起こっています。そして、これらのダイナミクスが進化し続けるのを見ることは、私たちにとって非常に興味深いことであり、おそらくあなたにとってはさらに興味深いことでしょう。本日は会話に参加していただき、ありがとうございました。[Rory] Really, really interesting dynamics happening here, and it will be very interesting for us and probably even more so for you to continue to see these dynamics evolve. Thank you so much for joining us for the conversation today-

[Olga] 招待してくれてありがとう[Olga] Thanks for having me

[ローリー] Olga。こちらこそありがとうございました。視聴者の皆様がAntares Private Credit Secondariesの提供内容についてさらに知りたい場合は、以下のリンクで詳細をご覧いただけます。