The Q3 earnings season is on track to show another quarter of positive earnings growth. In fact, the +7.6% earnings growth in Q3 will be the 5th quarter in a row of positive year-over-year earnings growth. If we look at aggregate earnings growth excluding the Energy sector drag, Q3 earnings would be up a much healthier +10.1%.
We have yet to see Q3 earnings results from most of the conventional or brick-and-mortar retailers, with Walmart WMT, Target TGT and others on deck to report results in the coming days. We know from other consumer-facing companies that have reported results already that consumer spending remains stable, with households continuing to spend at a healthy clip.
We know already that the lower end of income distribution has been under pressure. We have also known for some time now that consumers have been leaning more towards spending on services like leisure, travel, dining and hospitality and ignoring other discretionary products. This spending behavior has proved a headwind for operators that are heavily indexed towards discretionary merchandise or big-ticket items. Target has a heavier exposure to such discretionary merchandise and has been struggling as a result of this unfavorable spending behavior.
There have been some recent indicators suggesting a shift in this behavior, with demand for these discretionary services starting to ease. We don’t know if this emerging trend simply reflects pre-election jitters among consumers or the sign of an enduring shift. But if it is the start of a shift in spending behavior, then it would be welcome news for Target and others, as some of those dollars can be expected to start paying for discretionary merchandise. Walmart had noted at the time of its lastearnings callthat also suggested some signs of improvement in their discretionary merchandise.
With respect to the Q3 scorecard, we now have results from 460 S&P 500 members or 92% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +6.8% from the same period last year on +5.3% higher revenues, with 73.7% beating EPS estimates and 61.3% beating revenue estimates.
For more details about the Q3 earnings season and evolving expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report here >>>>Looking Ahead to Retail Sector Earnings
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