Weekly Chartstopper: April 24, 2026

This Week

This time a week ago, the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open.” By Saturday, it was closed again (and has remained that way). But there were some positive developments this week:

• President Trump extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire indefinitely and announced that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be extended three weeks.
• Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are heading to Pakistan Saturday for peace talks with Iran’s foreign minister.

Still, prediction market odds for a peace deal by the end of April have fallen to about 10% now from around 60% a week ago, which helps explain why Brent oil prices are up to $105 per barrel from $85 a week ago.

But that’s not all for this week:

• U.S. economic data have remained resilient despite the conflict.
  • Retail sales saw broad-based gains in March, rising +0.6% month-over-month (ex. gas stations).
  • Preliminary April PMIs for Manufacturing (54.0) and Services (51.3) both rose more than expected and were both in expansion (over 50).
• Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh gets closer to confirmation.
  • Warsh testified before Congress, noting his commitment to Fed independence and that President Trump “didn’t ask for” lower rates.
  • Also, the Department of Justice dropped the probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This is important since Senator Thom Tillis had said he’d block Warsh’s confirmation unless the probe were dropped.
• Nasdaq-100® on pace for 24% YoY earnings growth in Q1.
  • TSLA beat, seeing 77% YoY earnings growth (though it sold off after announcing $25 billion in capex this year).
  • INTC beat, seeing 157% YoY earnings growth, and raised guidance.

So, between strong earnings and a resilient economy, the Nasdaq-100® rose 2% this week to a new record high, while 10-year Treasury yields were up ~5bp to 4.3%.

Next Week

Here are the top events I’m watching next week:

• Tuesday: Consumer Confidence (April)
• Wednesday: Fed decision, GOOG earnings, MSFT earnings, AMZN earnings, META earnings
• Thursday: Real GDP (Q1), PCE inflation and spending (March), Employment Cost Index (Q1), AAPL earnings
• Friday: ISM & S&P Manufacturing PMIs (April)