Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
Pre-market futures started the early trading session this morning plummeting between -1% and -1.5%, largely on news from Ankara, Turkiye at the ongoing NATO summit earlier today. President Trump, clearly frustrated with the lack of progress on peace negotiations with Iran, says he considers the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) “a waste of time.” The U.S. is reportedly now reimposing sanctions on Iranian oil supplies, and American military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait are being targeted by Iran.
As we know from experience, however, things can change rapidly and drastically. Both governments see an end to this conflict as necessary to their economic well-being, but coming to terms is proving difficult, especially with Iran placing the end of Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon as part of any peace agreement they would adhere to. Again, expect these pieces to continue to be moving; markets are on the lookout for sparks of compromise, at least in the near-term.
By way of illustration, major indexes have climbed from their depths at this hour, but still a ways from break-even (which would still be near all-time high trading levels): the Dow is -430 points (-0.81%) at this hour, the S&P 500 is -39 points (-0.52%), the Nasdaq -223 (-0.76%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 -17 points (-0.59%). We’re still at or near double-digit gains year to date. Meanwhile, spot oil prices have jumped to $73 per barrel (/bbl) on WTI and $77/bbl on Brent crude.
Consumer Credit Expected to Have Dipped in May
After today’s open, the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve will release May Consumer Credit numbers, which are expected to pull back somewhat after two consecutive months north of $20 billion. We’ve been operating in a range of between $3.13 billion in August of last year and $25.2 billion in December, with revolving credit — which includes cumulative credit card debt — at $1.31 trillion in the Fed’s last report.
FOMC Minutes Due This Afternoon - What Will They Reveal?
In fewer than 150 words, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh clearly signaled a changing of the guard last month. It was June 17, the date of his first FOMC meeting at the helm, and it was the fourth such meeting of 2026 so far. Rates did not move from the 3.50-3.75% range established in December of last year, but everything else looked and felt different: no forward guidance, and no “old” language that had maintained a level of consistency over ex-Chair Jerome Powell’s eight-year tenure.
Instead, during his inaugural press conference as Fed Chair, Warsh outlined five task forces he announced would determine monetary policy, going forward: 1) communications 2) balance sheet 3) existing data sources 4) jobs & productivity, and 5) inflation. The Fed Chair told the press he was in the process of recruiting members of these task forces and that he expects them all to be in-place no later than the end of the calendar year.
This afternoon, we’ll take a look at the minutes from the FOMC meeting that christened this sea-change of policy. We don’t know who Warsh is tapping to fill the task forces at this stage, but we do know he would not have gotten this job if he hadn’t in some way assured President Trump that he was interested in cutting interest rates at the earliest opportunity. How were these proposals taken by the 19-members (12 voting) of the FOMC? We should have some answers later today.
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