Abstract Tech

There Is No Silver Bullet for Market Structure

It doesn’t matter what country you are in, regulators always seem to be reworking rules to make their markets better. The problem is that, often, different market objectives (and their solutions) conflict with each other. 

Today we compare how three major markets have tackled market structure problems. What stands out is that there is no silver bullet for the perfect market structure. 

Different markets protect quote setters, retail and competition differently

Some aspects of markets are consistent regardless of market structure.

  • Bids and offers are provided by buyers and sellers.
  • Limit orders can help capture spreads, while market orders provide instant access to liquidity.
  • Traders are competitive and always profit maximize (or cost minimize).
  • Information is important to maximize profits and reduce costs.

However, how regulators solve for these same problems can be very different – even in some of the most sophisticated markets in the world, as Table 1 shows: 

Table 1: Comparing market structure solutions 

Comparing market structure solutions

Tight spreads are good for investors and issuers

Most regulators seem to appreciate the value of public quotes. Competitive public bid and offer prices lower the spread (trading) costs, add certainty and liquidity to traders, and improve valuations and arbitrage. They can even protect investors trading off-exchange because of best-execution, and monitoring rules, like the U.S. rule 605.

Research suggests that it reduces company costs of capital, which in turn helps finance investments and grow the economy. These are all “good.”

To achieve tight spreads and deep liquidity in lit markets, it’s important that economics (and rules) support those providing competitive quotes. In short, that quote setters actually capture spread or are rewarded for their quotes in other ways.

How the three markets in question have solved for this is very different:

  • Canada has order protection rule (OPR), ensuring lit quotes capture spreads before worse prices can trade, and trade-at, putting lit quotes at the top of the consolidated queue unless a dark order meets a minimum size. That ensures they capture spread “first.”
  • The U.S. has OPR, ensuring lit quotes capture spreads before worse prices can be traded. The U.S. SIP formula also rewards quotes via revenue share, which are paid to exchanges and that, in turn, helps some exchanges pass on the economics of quote and liquidity provision via rebates and revenue sharing programs.
  • Europe has rules that encourage limited bilateral pre-trade transparency. They also force all venues to trade on the same tick-regime, which also requires significant spread improvement to jump existing queues.

Interestingly, Canada switched to trade-at back in 2012. Shortly after, Comerton-Forde (2018) found that the trade-at prohibition reduced retail order segmentation as order flow migrated on-exchange, enhancing lit liquidity. Retail traders receive less price improvement, but their effective spread is unchanged. The authors hypothesized that retail brokers costs increased (exchange fees) while high-frequency traders’ profits increased (from spread capture) at the same time. They also noted in their conclusions that inverted venues gained market share, possibly absorbing the retail order flow migrating away from dark pools as those venues reproduce payment for order flow on exchange

Competition brings down prices and brings up innovation

One way that regulators like to control costs, or encourage market improvement, is to allow for competition. Typically, allowing for innovation requires relaxing fair access rules. 

This has typically increased fragmentation, as new venues seek to cater to specific customer group in ways that equal markets can’t. For example: 

  • The U.S. has speed bump exchanges and very different rules for off-exchange venues that allow tiering and bundling in dark pools and even trading off-tick in bilateral trades.
  • Europe has different rules for multilateral trading facilities, or MTFs (which are exchange-like, with quotes and fair access), and systematic internalizers (which trade bilaterally). They also have more trading in quasi-dark trading venues, such as periodic auctions, cap trading in dark pools, and allow broker preferencing on-exchange.
  • Canada has allowed speed bump venues and broker preferencing on-exchange, too.

We show how fragmentation differs across each region in the chart below. The width of the bars shows the market share of each venue. Exchanges are blue, periodic auctions are gray, dark pools are black, and bilateral traders are green. We can see that:

  • Fragmentation is far higher in the U.S. and Europe (the height is the count of venues).
  • Bilateral trading is banned in Canada (no green), and much larger than dark pools in the U.S. (green area is larger than black area).

Chart 1: Fragmentation and complexity are highest in the U.S. and noticeably lower in Canada

Fragmentation and complexity are highest in the U.S. and noticeably lower in Canada

Reducing fragmentation and complexity

The main side effect of adding competitors is the increase in fragmentation and complexity. 

Fragmentation has real costs. The market has more fixed costs. Brokers have additional connection costs. Investors have higher search costs, missed fills and signaling. 

Arguably, complexity benefits smarter, more sophisticated traders. Some research has also found that fragmentation makes latency arbitrage easier, especially in Europe, where distances (and order travel time) are so much larger.

Chart 2: Latency is much higher in Europe

Latency is much higher in Europe

Importantly, segmentation takes away some of the economics of setting NBBO, making it less than a “best” price.  While fragmentation adds distance between where quotes happen, delaying any quotes that a consolidated tape is trying to protect.

Despite that, consolidated tapes are a key way that most markets have tried to solve for fragmentation:

  • Canada has a consolidated tape, with trade-at protection, but it excludes venues with less than 2.5% market share, dark pools and speed bump markets. They also ban off-exchange systematic internalizers. That focuses liquidity on lit and larger public venues – while allowing smaller venues to innovate.
  • Europe has used dark pool volume caps (with questionable success), and requires all venues to trade on the same ticks, leveling the economics of trading.
  • The U.S., to a large extent, relies on the SIP to “reconsolidate” its fragmented market. The SIP even tells slow traders where to route for the best prices, and when trades are happening in the dark. Ironically, SIP also adds to fragmentation via the revenues new exchanges earn just by matching existing quotes.

Interestingly, Canada removed full order protection status back in 2016. There are now 17 trading venues in Canada, of which only seven venues are protected. Foley, Liu, & Jarnecic (2022) studied the partial removal of OPR and observed “that the 2% trading threshold […] for order protection has halted the fragmentation of liquidity in Canada, with no new venues added since the thresholds introduction.”

Clearly, once regulators allow for innovation and segmentation, the concept of “best” prices is also changed. Ironically, the more differentiated liquidity a market creates, the less useful and relevant a public tape becomes.

Protecting investors

One of the key mandates for regulators is often to protect investors.

The most common way to do that is to require brokers to give all customers the best execution (“best-ex”) possible. How that works is different, too: 

  • The U.S.: Not only are NBBO quotes “protected” from trade through rules during the day, but there is also a monthly report showing the price improvement (or not) for each marketplace (known as 605 reports).
  • Canada: Rules requiring displayed quotes must be traded first, unless a hidden order provides meaningful price improvement - a full tick or mid-point if the spread is at a minimum, which protects investors from trades at worse prices.
  • Europe: Has just approved a consolidated tape that could be used to assess trade prices against other prices in the market. However, in contrast to North America, MiFID best ex-rules are very subjective, and allow trade-throughs (trades at worse than BBO prices) if they can be justified. There is no plan currently to require brokers to measure or report their execution quality versus the upcoming EBBO. 

Interestingly, how traders pay for consolidated tape data differs, too.

  • Europe seems to be heading toward very cheap data – although regulators have made it clear that, given it is delayed, it should have limited value for traders who send orders (that would, after all, be free riding).
  • The U.S. consolidated tape pricing is set subject to SEC approval. It also carries only the data required to trade at the NBBO. Although, there were rules approved years ago to add depth and odd-lot data to the SIP, too (odd lot data scheduled to be included in May 2026).
  • Canada also has a utility that compiles a consistent consolidated tape for all. Although the data costs the same as if you compiled a CBBO yourself, the Canadian regulator evaluates data prices based on market share.

Keep calm and carry on?

It’s amazing, really, how different these three modern markets can be. And yet we can see that there are benefits (and costs) to each approach. 

  • The U.S. has a simple NBBO with a SIP that recognizes the economic benefits of NBBO data, but the most fragmentation and the most trades that use (but don’t contribute to) the NBBO.
  • Canada has a complicated PBBO (with unprotected and speed-bumped quotes excluded) but more explicit rules (like trade-at) that reward lit quotes with spread capture.
  • Europe has the most level tick regime but no way of quantifying the actual costs of brokers' routing decisions.

One thing seems clear – there is no silver bullet when it comes to market structure!

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Abstract Tech

There Is No Silver Bullet for Market Structure

We recently introduced our new Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse. Today, we update the data for our pair of Nasdaq IPO Pulses through September, giving us a sense of the likely IPO environment in Stockholm and the U.S. into early 2025.

Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse still near recent high 

The Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse reached a 2½-year high in June, indicating IPO activity should remain in an upturn. Consistent with that signal, IPO activity also reached a two-year high in Q2.

In Q3, the Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse initially fell, then rose in September (chart below, blue line), and is now near June’s 2½-year high.

Even though the Stockholm IPO Pulse remains in an upturn, IPO activity slowed in Q3. However, that includes some seasonal trends – as many Swedes are on vacation in July and August while their days are long and the weather is warm. 

Despite that, Q3 still saw the second most IPOs in the last six quarters (green bars).

Chart 1: The Stockholm IPO Pulse sees a continued upturn in IPO activity into early 2025

The Stockholm IPO Pulse sees a continued upturn in IPO activity into early 2025

With the Nasdaq Stockholm IPO Pulse just below its recent high, IPO activity should stay in an upturn at least into early 2025.

U.S.-focused Nasdaq IPO Pulse near recent three-year high

The message is similar for the U.S.-focused Nasdaq IPO Pulse.

In September, the Nasdaq IPO Pulse edged down for the second straight month, falling to a three-month low (chart below, blue line). However, it’s still just below July’s three-year high.

Consistent with the ongoing upturn in the Nasdaq IPO Pulse, IPO activity was little changed in Q3 from Q2’s 2½-year high (green bars). In fact, through Q3, we have seen IPOs for 126 operating companies and 34 SPACs in 2024.

Chart 2: The Nasdaq IPO Pulse sees IPO activity holding up into next year

The Nasdaq IPO Pulse sees IPO activity holding up into next year

So, with the Nasdaq IPO Pulse near a three-year high, U.S. IPO activity should remain in an upturn into early next year.

Rate cuts starting around the world providing tailwind to IPO activity

Interestingly, the upturn in the Nasdaq IPO Pulse had happened in spite of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle. 

Now, though, with the Fed pivoting to cutting rates, after 14 months at their peak (chart below, red line), rates should finally become a boost to IPO activity.

With this cut, the Fed joined a number of central banks in cutting rates this year, including Sweden’s Riksbank, the European Central Bank (blue line) and the Bank of England (green line), to name a few.

The Fed appears to just be getting started. The Fed’s projections call for rates falling from 5% now to 3% by the end of 2026. Markets see the fed funds rates getting to 3.4% late next year before plateauing (light red line).

Chart 3: Global rates expected to fall further

Global rates expected to fall further

Markets see U.K. rates getting down to 3.5% by the end of next year (light green line), and Eurozone rates getting to 1.8% by early 2026 (light blue line).

Given this pivot toward rate cuts in major economies, lower rates should act as a tailwind to IPO activity in major markets around the world.

Higher rates hurt IPO candidates by worsening valuations and margins

There are a couple reasons why higher rates were a drag on IPOs.

First, they’re bad for valuations. Higher rates increase borrowing costs, making it more expensive to generate future earnings. And, at the margin, worse valuations result in fewer IPOs.

Second, and more immediately, higher borrowing costs hurt margins. This is especially true for smaller companies, which tend to have half their debt floating rate.

We can see the Fed’s interest rate hikes have affected margins at smaller companies much more than at larger companies. In fact, data shows that about 40% of small caps’ debt is floating rate, compared to just 7% for large caps. As a result, the Fed’s rate hike cycle doubled the ratio of interest expense to earnings for U.S. small caps from about 20% to over 45% (chart below, green line). This is the highest this ratio has been this century, aside from a couple recession-related spikes due to falling earnings.

Chart 4: Higher rates especially hurt smaller companies, eating into margins

Higher rates especially hurt smaller companies, eating into margins

Despite many other factors being supportive of IPOs, this increased interest expense was a one-two punch for companies considering an IPO. First by worsening valuations. Then by weighing on margins, hurting their financial picture. As rates fall, though, this should make it easier for those companies to grow profits, improving many microcap valuations.

And, once the election is over, another (temporary) headwind to IPO activity will be gone, too.

With headwinds fading, IPO activity to stay in uptrend into 2025

So, with two obstacles to IPOs set to fall away, and both IPO Pulses near their recent highs, the ongoing upturns in IPO activity we’ve seen in the U.S. and Stockholm look set to continue into early next year.

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