SpaceX SPCX delivered stronger-than-expected second-quarter results in its first earnings report as a public company, though the stock slipped in after-hours trading amid concerns over rising AI spending and an upcoming lockup expiration. The stock gained 9.4% on Aug. 4, 2026, while it slumped 7.5% after hours (at the time of writing).
The aerospace company reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.72 billion and improving sharply from $4.7 billion in the first quarter. Revenues from the space segment came in at $962 million against $835 million expected, according to StreetAccount, while revenues from the connectivity segment came in at $4.29 billion in Q2 versus $3.83 billion expected, as quoted on CNBC.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.5 billion, well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $2.0 billion, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. The company’s net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion. Loss per share of 9 cents was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 26 cents per share. Since opening at $150 on June 12, SpaceX’s stock has dropped by 16% as of Tuesday’s close.
AI Spending Continues to Surge
SpaceX's AI business posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion, narrower than analysts' estimate of $2.39 billion. However, the company's AI investments accelerated significantly, with spending soaring to $15.8 billion in Q2 from $7.7 billion in the previous quarter, per Yahoo Finance.
While investors welcomed the stronger earnings, concerns remain over whether SpaceX's aggressive AI infrastructure investments will generate sufficient long-term returns. Revenues from the AI segment came in at $2.56 billion, better than the $2.18 billion expected, according to StreetAccount, as quoted on CNBC.
NVIDIA Partnership Expands Space-Based AI Ambitions
SpaceX also unveiled a strategic partnership with NVIDIA to develop its Starmind AI-1 payload, aimed at bringing "datacenter-class compute" into orbit.
The project will utilize NVIDIA's Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, boosting SpaceX's peak satellite computing capacity to 250 kW, per Yahoo Finance.
Lockup Expiration Poses Near-Term Risk
Despite the earnings beat, investors remain focused on the company's upcoming lockup expiration.
According to Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson, the Aug. 6 lockup expiration could release hundreds of millions of insider shares – roughly three times the current tradable float. The additional supply could allow insiders to sell up to 20% of outstanding shares, potentially keeping pressure on the stock, per the same Yahoo Finance article.
Starlink Continues to Drive Growth
SpaceX's satellite internet business remained a bright spot during the quarter.
Starlink subscribers surpassed 12 million by the end of Q2, while the connectivity segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $2.60 billion, exceeding analysts' estimate of $2.41 billion, per Yahoo Finance.
Musk reiterated his long-term vision for the business, saying it is possible that Starlink could eventually provide the majority of the world's internet connectivity.
Starship Milestones in Focus
Beyond earnings, investors are watching SpaceX's next Starship mission, where the company aims to make the first-ever tower catch of the upper stage using Mechazilla arms during Flight 14, pending a successful data review.
ETFs in Focus
Baron First Principles ETF RONB, Roundhill Space & Technology ETF MARS, VanEck Space ETF WARP, VanEck Space ETF ORBX, VegaShares SpaceX & Beyond Earth ETF XSPC and WisdomTree Space Economy Fund WSPC are the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in SpaceX to a significant extent. Any material movement in SpaceX (positive or negative) would influence these ETFs significantly.
Heavy AI investments have been part and parcel of every big AI company, as evident from Big Tech's mammoth AI investment pattern. Hence, we expect investors’ concerns around hefty AI investment are less likely to hold SPCX shares back for long.
SpaceX's first staggered lock-up expiration begins on August 6, 2026. If no material negative impact is seen post the expiration, SPCX shares may gain on their own fundamentals or at least trade in a rangebound manner.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
