Oil prices remained under pressure lately with the WTI crude exchange-traded fund (ETF) United States Oil Fund LP USO losing about 5.3% past week. The ETF slumped more than 3% on Tuesday. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO has succumbed to the same fate. WTI hovered around $65.75 per barrel, while Brent closed at $69.19 per barrel—its lowest level since December 2021, as quoted on Yahoo Finance.
Oil Futures Erase Year-to-Date Gains
Both WTI and Brent crude oil have erased their year-to-date gains in recent weeks. WTI is down approximately 5% for the year, while Brent has dropped around 8%, with both hovering near their lowest levels in 2024.
Against this backdrop, investors can keep a close tab on the inverse leveraged oil ETFs like ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil SCO and MicroSectors Energy 3X Inverse Leveraged ETNs WTID. The SCO was up 5.1% on Sept. 10, 2024, while WTID was up 6.4% on the day.
Let’s delve a little deeper.
OPEC Reduces Demand Growth Forecast for 2024 and 2025
In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its oil demand growth forecast for 2024, predicting an increase of 2.0 million barrels per day. This is 80,000 barrels less than its previous estimate. The group also slightly adjusted its growth forecast downward for 2025.
China's Economic Headwinds Hurt Oil Demand
One of the main reasons for OPEC's downward revision was China's ongoing economic woes, including a real estate crisis and an inclination for greener energy consumption. The country has increasingly shifted to natural gas, which is both cheaper and cleaner than oil, as part of its energy transition. OPEC’s report highlighted weakened demand for diesel due to slower manufacturing, construction and trucking activities, along with the growing use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks.
OPEC's Forecasts Higher Than Industry Estimates
Despite the revised forecasts, OPEC's expectations remain higher than other industry estimates. According to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, "OPEC+ has simply been over-optimistic with their demand growth forecasts, which are nearly double the estimates from the EIA (Energy Information Administration) and IEA (International Energy Agency)," as quoted on the Yahoo Finance article.
Analysts Lower Crude Price Targets Amid Weaker Global Demand
Wall Street analysts have grown more pessimistic about crude prices, largely due to weakened demand from China. The U.S. economy, too, is showing signs of slowing. Economic concerns in the United States and Europe, where the summer driving season has ended, have also contributed to lower price targets. OPEC+ recently delayed the unwinding of voluntary production cuts, which were originally scheduled for October.
EIA Predicts Brent Prices to Recover in 2024 and 2025
Despite the recent decline, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a recovery in Brent crude prices. The agency expects the Brent spot price to average $82 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $84 per barrel in 2025, driven by ongoing OPEC+ production cuts.
Minimal Impact Expected from Tropical Storm Francine
As Tropical Storm Francine approaches Texas and Louisiana, traders are evaluating its likely impact on oil and gas prices. However, Lipow sees minimal effects, noting that unless there is significant flooding or storm surge, the storm is unlikely to disrupt supply or prices in a meaningful way. It means that there will be no relief in the price recovery of oil due to tropical storms.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
