Key Points
Bitcoin is down 47% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October.
This cryptocurrency tends to be highly cyclical, and a dramatic drawdown in price is nothing new.
If history is any guide, Bitcoin will soon recover, pulling along the rest of the crypto market with it.
- 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›
The past eight months have admittedly been a tough pill for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) investors to swallow. The world's most popular cryptocurrency is down 47% over that period and recently dropped below $70,000. Bitcoin ETF outflows are accelerating, and even Michael Saylor -- arguably the biggest Bitcoin bull on the planet -- has started to sell some of his Bitcoin.
Despite all that, I'm buying Bitcoin right now. I'm not expecting Bitcoin to recover immediately, but when it does -- as I think it inevitably will -- it's going to be a coiled spring ready to bounce higher.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
It's still Bitcoin season
In the crypto market, it's still "Bitcoin season." That means it's time to load up on Bitcoin and wait for the broader crypto market to recover. Later, once Bitcoin has ignited a broader crypto recovery, it becomes "altcoin season." That's the time to rotate into riskier altcoins.
The indicator that I'm using is the Altcoin Season Index from CoinMarketCap. It takes into account the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies ranked by market cap (excluding stablecoins) and counts how many have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
Right now, the indicator is at 51, suggesting that half of the market has outperformed Bitcoin, and half of the market has underperformed Bitcoin over the past three months. As long as the indicator remains under 75, it's Bitcoin season.
In short, there is no time to panic. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin has been down approximately 8%. But just about every other large-cap crypto is also down. Ethereum, for example, is down 12%. XRP is down 14%. And Solana is down 18%.
See what I mean? It's still Bitcoin season.
Bitcoin has always bounced back
Long-time crypto investors understand that Bitcoin is highly cyclical. It has moved in four-year cycles and followed a predictable pattern: two years of accelerating returns, one year in which Bitcoin explodes in value to hit a new all-time high, and one year of total collapse. Then the cycle begins anew. At least that's how it's been so far.
Image source: Getty Images.
So, guess where we are in the cycle right now? Yes, we're in the year of "total collapse." The collapse started in October, so there's likely to be several more months of pain ahead. But after that -- if history repeats -- Bitcoin will begin to regain its footing.
Just check the numbers from previous Bitcoin cycles. In 2019, 2020, and 2021, Bitcoin soared in value. Then it lost 64% of its value in 2022.
In 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin once again soared in value. And in the first nine months of 2025, Bitcoin exploded in value, hitting a new all-time high of $126,000. That's three good years, then one bad year.
That's why I'm not concerned about Bitcoin recently falling below $70,000. Quite likely, it will fall further still in 2026. But just wait until 2027, when Bitcoin is likely to regain its momentum and begin to bounce back higher. By the time of its next halving in April 2028, Bitcoin should be primed to hit yet another all-time high.
Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $439,847!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,342,065!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 968% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of June 6, 2026.
Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
