Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Sept. 26, after the closing bell.
In the last quarter, MTN’s earnings and net revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4% and 2.1%, respectively.
How are MTN’s Estimates Placed?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal fourth-quarter loss per share has widened in the past seven days to $4.28 from $4.26. The current estimate indicates a 27.8% decline from the reported value in the year-ago quarter.
Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote
The consensus mark for net revenues is pegged at $264 million. The metric indicates a decline of 2.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Factors to Note Ahead of MTN’s Quarterly Earnings
Vail Resorts’ fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to have declined year over year due to a decline in skier visits and an overall shift in destination mountain travel due to seasonal demand trends. Also, weather-related challenges are likely to have been additional headwinds. Such a scenario is anticipated to have adversely impacted the contributions from the company’s Mountain (contributed 93.2% to fiscal third-quarter 2024 net revenues) and Lodging (contributed 6.8% to fiscal third-quarter net revenues) segments.
Our model predicts revenues from the Mountain and Lodging segments to decline year over year by 2.6% to $176.4 million and by 1.7% to $87.1 million, respectively. Although the Real Estate (contributed 0.01% to fiscal third-quarter net revenues) segment’s revenues are expected to increase year over year by 0.1% to $0.2 million, the expected declines in MTN’s other two reportable segments are likely to overshadow the growth.
Moreover, MTN’s bottom line is expected to have been hurt by a substantial increase in operating expenses across its reportable segments. Also, a decline in the top line is likely to hurt the metric to some extent.
We expect Resort reported EBITDA (earnings before interest tax, depreciation and amortization) to decline 25% year over year to $(108.5) million.
What Our Model Says
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.
Earnings ESP: MTN has an Earnings ESP of -0.88%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Sony Group Corporation SONY has an Earnings ESP of +5.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
SONY is expected to register a 22.3% increase in earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2024. It reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other occasion, with an earnings surprise of 12.1%, on average.
Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
BYD’s earnings for the third quarter of 2024 are expected to increase 3.7%. It reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on the other two occasions, the average surprise being 3.6%.
Red Rock Resorts, Inc. RRR currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
RRR’s earnings for the third quarter of 2024 are expected to decline 38.3%. It reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with an earnings surprise of 67.2% on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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