Friday, October 4th, 2024
Pre-market futures end a tentative trading week higher, both before and after this morning’s Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Currently, we see gains of +200 points on the Dow at this hour, +40 points on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq +204 points.
Jobs Reports Better than Expected: +254K, Unemployment +4.1%
Headline monthly job gains from the BLS for September this morning exploded higher: +254K versus estimates of between +132-150K, much higher than the trailing three-month average of +140K new jobs and the highest single-month level since March of this year. The Unemployment Rate ticks down 10 basis points (10 bps) to +4.1%, the lowest since June.
Revisions to the previous two months are also higher: to +159K new jobs filled in August from +142K originally reported, and from a scant +89K from July now up nicely to +144K (likely pulled from the June tally, which saw a big drawdown). So the labor force situation looks to have moderated favorably, demonstrating that a nose-dive into recession thanks to a deteriorating jobs market remains elusive.
Wages month over month ticked up to +0.4% from expectations, matching August’s growth. Year over year, wages are up +4.0%, 20 bps higher than the previous BLS read. This would track with a healthy labor market, that wage increases stay buoyant. Labor Force Participation has kept at +62.7% — not bad at all, but not great. The Average Workweek ticked down to 34.2. The U-6 print (aka “real unemployment”) also came down, to +7.7% in September from +7.9% in August.
Dockworker Strike Put Off til January
The dockworkers strike on behalf of the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) has been postponed til early next year, the news came in last night. Union workers will now see +61.5% wage increases over the next six years, while negotiations regarding further use of automation on the docks will resume after holiday shopping season (and the upcoming presidential election).
Jobs Week: A Very Brief Review
This past Jobs Week, which concludes with the applaudable +254K new jobs and +4.1% Unemployment, has been a successful one. Not only today’s BLS report, but Wednesday’s private-sector payrolls from ADP ADP also came in slightly higher than anticipated. Yesterday’s Jobless Claims increased last week, but not very notably, while longer-term jobless claims were again flat-to-down. And the JOLTS report for August showed an increase in job openings.
So the Fed has inflation on track for a soft landing, and we’re basically back at full employment. It’s tough to find a better situation than this from a national economic perspective. The storm clouds on the horizon look to be the extensive damage from Hurricane Helene and war raging in the Middle East.
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