Gold kicked off the week with a new record high of $3,100 an ounce due to concerns over an escalating global trade war as President Donald Trump prepares to impose additional tariffs. This follows gold’s fourth consecutive weekly gain, fueled by increased demand amid a broader market risk-off sentiment.
Last week, Trump signed a proclamation imposing a 25% tariff on auto imports, with traders now anticipating the White House’s upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" set for Wednesday. Gold price has jumped about 18% this year, notching at least 15 record highs.
The rally has been driven by central bank purchases and growing demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. These factors have sustained prices despite traders scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. They now project just two quarter-point reductions. Lower interest rates typically support non-yielding assets like gold.
Gold is priced in the greenback, which has been subdued lately in anticipation of a slowing U.S. economy. Note that Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP is off 3.9% this year.
What Lies Ahead?
Several major banks have increased their price targets for gold, with Goldman Sachs recently raising its year-end forecast to $3,300 an ounce, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and robust inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF), as quoted on Bloomberg.
What Does Technical Analysis Say?
Gold Jun '25 has a 200-Day moving average (MA) of 2,721.6, while a 50-day moving average of 2,951.4. The 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA, which suggests that prices have been moving up in the short term.
Also, the 200-day moving average is lower than the current price ($3,156.3) of Gold Jun '25 futures, at the time of writing. It signals a bullish trend and suggests that the asset is in a long-term uptrend.
Many institutional investors and traders use the 200-day MA as a key indicator. If price remains above it, it often attracts more buyers.
Bottom Line
Gold’s rally from here depends on the Fed’s behavior and the progression of the geopolitical crisis including the trade war. If the Fed stays put from here or cuts rates, it would be good news for gold investing. At the current level, the trend is a friend for gold ETFs.
Hence, investors should closely track ETFs like iShares Gold Trust IAU, abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF SGOL, SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust GLDM and Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF AAAU. In a bull-case scenario, investors should track leveraged gold ETF ProShares Ultra Gold UGL.
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Get it free >>iShares Gold Trust (IAU): ETF Research Reports
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL): ETF Research Reports
ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL): ETF Research Reports
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (UUP): ETF Research Reports
SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM): ETF Research Reports
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
