It has been about a month since the last earnings report for FedEx (FDX). Shares have added about 1.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is FedEx due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for FedEx Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Earnings Beat at FedEx in Q4
FedEx reported solid fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly earnings (excluding 29 cents from non-recurring items) of $6.31 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.91 as well as improved 3.9% year over year. The company’s bottom line benefited from share repurchase activity.
Revenues of $25.0 billion came ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $24.1 billion and improved 12.5% from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s reported figure.
Apart from the better-than-expected results, FDX has also raised its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance for revenues and earnings. For fiscal 2026, FedEx now expects revenue growth to be up almost 11% on a year-over-year basis (prior view: up 6-6.5%). Earnings per share (EPS) are now anticipated to be between $16.55 and $17.75 before the MTM retirement plans accounting adjustments compared with the prior guidance of $16.05-$16.85.
Operating income, on a reported basis, increased 3.4% to $2.09 billion from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s reported number. Operating margin fell to 8.4% from 9.1% in the year-ago reported quarter. Operating income improved in the fiscal fourth quarter on the back of continued strength in U.S. Domestic and International Priority package yields, cost savings from transformation initiatives and increased U.S. domestic and international export package volume.
Operating expenses (reported basis) increased 15% to $23.4 billion.
In January 2025, FedEx’s board of directors announced a change in the company’s fiscal year-end from May 31 to Dec. 31. The fiscal year change became effective for the period beginning June 1, 2026.
The spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company was completed on June 1, 2026. In connection with the spin-off, FedEx Freight paid a cash dividend of almost $4.1 billion to FedEx from the proceeds of the $3.7 billion senior notes offering completed in February 2026 and borrowings under its delayed-draw term loan facility.
FedEx Freight will discuss its fiscal fourth-quarter results on June 25, 2026, through a call.
Segmental Performance During the Quarter
FedEx Express segment’s revenues grew 14% year over year to $21.5 billion. The Federal Express segment benefited from higher U.S. domestic and International Priority package yields, continued cost savings from transformation initiatives and increased U.S. domestic and international export package volume. These factors were partially offset by increased purchased transportation and wage rates, higher variable incentive compensation expenses and the financial impacts of global trade policy changes.
FedEx Freight revenues grew 5% from the year-ago fiscal quarter’s reported figure to $2.40 billion.
Average daily shipments fell 6% year over year. Capital expenditures for the reported quarter were $1.47 billion.
Liquidity
FedEx exited fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $13.3 billion compared with $8.01 billion at the end of the prior quarter. Long-term debt (less current portion) was $23.2 billion compared with $22.8 billion at prior-quarter end.
During fiscal 2026, FedEx returned almost $2.2 billion to shareholders, which includes $776 million in the form of share repurchases and $1.4 billion through dividend payments. As of May 31, 2026, $1.3 billion was available under the company's 2024 stock repurchase authorization.
Remaining Aspects of 2026 Outlook
EPS, after excluding costs related to business optimization initiatives, the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight, and the planned change in the company's fiscal year end, is now expected between $16.90 and $18.10 compared with the prior guided range of $19.30 to $20.10.
Pension contributions are now expected to be up to $475 million (prior view: $275 million).
For fiscal 2026, FedEx now anticipates capital spending of $3.9 billion (prior view: $4.1 billion), prioritizing investments in network optimization and efficiency improvement, which includes fleet and facility modernization and automation. The effective tax rate is now estimated to be around 23% compared with the prior expectation of 24%.
For 2026, FedEx remains committed to rewarding its shareholders, which includes the previously announced 5% increase in the annual dividend on its common stock, after adjusting for the FedEx Freight spin-off. FDX also plans to repurchase up to $1 billion worth of shares opportunistically, leveraging continued balance sheet flexibility and free cash flow generation to offset dilution from equity compensation.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Analysts were quiet during the last two month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.
VGM Scores
At this time, FedEx has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
FedEx has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
