The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. EL is likely to register top-and-bottom line decline when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Oct. 31. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales is pegged at $3.4 billion, suggesting a decrease of 4% from the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter earnings has remained unchanged in the past 30 days at 9 cents per share, indicating a decline of 18.2% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. EL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 117%, on average.
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Things to Consider About EL’s Upcoming Results
The Estee Lauder Companies continues to operate in a challenging macroeconomic environment. The ongoing volatility in the global prestige beauty market in mainland China and Asia travel retail is posing a hurdle. In its lastearnings call management highlighted that it projects a more restrained performance compared with the industry average in fiscal 2025 due to its substantial business presence in mainland China and Asia travel retail.
The company is closely monitoring several risks, including retailer destocking driven by weak consumer sentiment, which may impact the prestige beauty market in mainland China and the Asia travel retail sector. In addition, changing traveler behaviors — where consumers are increasingly prioritizing experiences over products — are influencing Asia's travel retail landscape. The Estee Lauder Companies is also facing challenges from unfavorable currency fluctuations. Intense competition within the beauty industry adds to the complexity of the market. These ongoing trends are likely to have affected the company’s fiscal first-quarter results.
Management anticipates a reported and organic net sales decline of 5-3% year over year in first-quarter fiscal 2025. Our model suggests an organic sales decrease of 4.2% in the to-be-reported quarter. The company expects a constant currency adjusted earnings per share (EPS) decline of 89-17% to 1-9 cents.
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. price-eps-surprise | The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Quote
Earnings Whispers for EL
Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for The Estee Lauder Companies this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Estee Lauder Companies carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -24.80%.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these, too, have the correct combination to beat on earnings this time around.
Abercrombie & Fitch ANF has an Earnings ESP of +3.97% and sports a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. ANF is likely to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.2 billion, which suggests 11.3% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.31 per share, which calls for 26.2% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. ANF delivered an earnings beat of 28%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Clorox CLX currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.60% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register top-and-bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Clorox’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, which indicates an increase of 17.6% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Clorox’s quarterly earnings of $1.36 per share indicates growth of 177.6% from the year-ago quarter’s levels. CLX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 122.9%, on average.
e.l.f. Beauty ELF, a cosmetic company, currently has an Earnings ESP of +17.74% and a Zacks Rank of 3. ELF is likely to register top-line growth when it releases second-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $291 million, implying a rise of 35% from that reported in the year-ago quarter.
However, the bottom line is likely to decline year over year. The consensus estimate for e.l.f. Beauty’s quarterly earnings are pegged at 44 cents, projecting a decline of 46.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. ELF has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 40.3%.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
