Corn prices are following up Friday’s bullish USDA reports with losses of 6 to 7 cents on Monday morning. Futures were hesitant to act on the bullish USDA report on Friday, as contracts closed with steady to 4 cent higher action. Rains in the forecast heading into the middle of July and thus pollination likely encouraged the bears to be patient. Corn open interest did decrease 5,305 contracts on Friday. Per the CME Group, the highest options volumes were in the December 450 calls and September 380 puts.
The monthly WASDE update showed old crop corn stocks at 1.877 billion bushels, down 145 mbu from June. That was on a 75 mbu hike to both exports and feed and residual, and was 120 mbu below the low end of trade expectations. For new crop, USDA pegged a 5 mbu cut to the carryout at 2.097 bbu, on the lower carryover and an expected increase to production. The balance sheet took the 91.5 million planted and 83.4 million harvested acres from June’s Acreage report, bumping up production 240 mbu to 15.100 bbu with yield left at 181 bpa.
On the world side of the equation, the WAOB showed Brazilian 2023/24 production at 122 MMT unchanged from last month. That is still above the 115.86 MMT from CONAB’s estimate on Thursday. For the 2024/25 MY, USDA was still at 127 MMT, with the initial Safras number pegged at 134.92 MMT. The Argentina 23/24 crop estimate was trimmed 1 MMT to 52 MMT. World ending stocks for the 23/24 marketing year were down 3.26 MMT to 309.13 MMT, as new crop was up 0.87 to 311.64 MMT and in line vs. expectations.
Friday afternoon’s CFTC report showed spec funds expanding to a record net short position in the week that ended on July 9, to 353,983 contracts. That net short grew 17,445 contracts from the week prior. Commercials were net long a record 62,665 contracts on that date.
Nearby Cash was $3.93 1/8, up 2 1/4 cents,
Sep 24 Corn closed at $4.02, up 1 3/4 cents currently down 7 1/2 cents,
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.14 3/4, up 4 cents, currently down 6 1/4 cents
New Crop Cash was $3.78, up 2 3/4 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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