Coeur Mining, Inc. CDE is expected to post year-over-year growth in earnings when it reports second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5, after market close.
The consensus mark for earnings has moved down over the past 60 days to 22 cents per share for the quarter. The figure indicates a 41% sequential decline.
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CDE’s Earnings Surprise History
CDE’s earnings performance has been mixed in recent quarters. Earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in one, delivering a negative average surprise of 4.6%.
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What the Zacks Model Unveils for CDE
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CDE this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for CDE is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CDE currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped CDE's Q2 Performance
Despite Coeur's record first-quarter results, several factors suggest that its second-quarter performance may fall short of elevated market expectations. The biggest overhang is the company's tough year-over-year and sequential comparisons following solid first-quarter revenue.
Record first-quarter EBITDA and free cash flow were driven by strong gold and silver prices, but the second quarter might have faced pressure as investors assess whether full-quarter contributions from New Afton and Rainy River can offset operational challenges and justify the acquisition-driven rise in debt to $761.4 million from $340.5 million at the end of 2025.
Several mines entered the second quarter with notable headwinds. Rochester reported lower first-quarter production because of planned lower grades, maintenance-related downtime and reduced ore placement linked to leach pad expansion activities. Although crusher repairs were completed early in the second quarter, the mine still faces elevated capital spending and higher royalty expenses.
Kensington also suffered from mine sequencing issues and planned mill maintenance, resulting in weaker production and a 47% sequential increase in adjusted costs applicable to sales.
At Wharf, first-quarter gold production plunged 61% sequentially following crusher fire-related disruptions, while costs rose sharply and free cash flow dropped significantly. Although operations are expected to have normalized, any slower-than-expected ramp-up could have weighed on consolidated results.
Coeur reaffirmed its 2026 guidance. Costs are expected to have remained under pressure in the second quarter due to higher royalty expenses, inflation, a stronger Mexican peso and increased maintenance spending. Elevated silver costs may have also weighed on margins despite favorable metal prices.
Recent exploration success at Palmarejo and Las Chispas supports long-term growth, but Coeur's record $158 million exploration budget for 2026 is likely to affect near-term earnings, with production benefits expected only over the longer term.
While Coeur is expected to benefit from full-quarter contributions from New Afton and Rainy River, the combination of integration risks, elevated operating costs, higher debt, persistent mine-specific challenges, and demanding comparisons to a record first quarter could overshadow these positives.
CDE Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
Price Performance of CDE vs. Industry, ERO, SCCO & LUNMF
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Shares of CDE have surged 61.9% in the past year compared with the industry’s 61.6% growth.
CDE lags miners like Ero Copper Corp. ERO, Southern Copper Corporation SCCO and Lundin Mining Corporation LUNMF, which have gained 95.2%, 96.4% and 142.6%, respectively, in the past year.
CDE is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 11.16 at a discount to the industry's 20.55. It is lower than both SCCO and LUNMF and higher than ERO.
Valuation of CDE vs. Industry, ERO, SCCO & LUNMF
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Final Thoughts: Sell CDE Shares
Coeur remains well-positioned for long-term growth, supported by its expanded asset base and encouraging exploration success. However, the near-term picture appears more challenging. Rochester continues to deal with lower grades, elevated capital spending and higher royalty expenses. Kensington is working through mine sequencing issues and higher operating costs, while Wharf is still recovering from the impact of crusher fire-related disruptions. Although New Afton and Rainy River should provide a full-quarter contribution, investors will likely focus on whether these benefits are enough to offset operational weakness across other sites, rising costs and the higher debt taken on to fund the acquisitions.
Given these mine-specific headwinds, elevated exploration spending, integration risks and difficult comparisons with a record first quarter, Coeur may find it challenging to deliver another standout quarter. While the company's long-term fundamentals remain intact, the current risk-reward balance appears less favorable for the near term. The near-term uncertainties suggest that a sell stance is appropriate for investors.
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See Stocks Now >>Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
