Aflac Incorporated AFL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2024 results on Oct. 30, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share is pegged at $1.69, which indicates a 8.2% decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
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Third-quarter earnings estimates have witnessed two upward revisions compared with one downward over the past month. During this time, the estimate has gained 1.2%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $4.6 billion, indicating a 7% fall from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
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Aflac’s Earnings Surprise History
Aflac’s bottom line beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 8.24%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote
What Our Quantitative Model Unveils for AFL
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Aflac this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.
Earnings ESP: Aflac has an Earnings ESP of +0.66% because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.70 per share is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.69. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AFL currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
Factors to Note Ahead of AFL’s Results
Aflac’s revenue growth is anticipated to have been supported by strong contributions from its U.S. operations. This segment is expected to have been bolstered by an increase in net earned premiums and higher-yielding fixed-income investments. Premiums are likely to have gained on improved sales of Group Life Absent Management and Disability and individual voluntary benefits.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net earned premiums for Aflac’s U.S. segment is pegged at $1.5 billion, indicating a 3.3% increase from the prior-year quarter’s figure. Additionally, the consensus mark for adjusted net investment income for the unit is pegged at $217.3 million, indicating 4% growth from the year-ago quarter’s number.
On the other hand, Aflac’s Japan segment is expected to have suffered challenges due to a decline in net earned premiums. This drop is likely to have been due to a decline in paid-up policies. Nevertheless, solid persistency rates are likely to have provided an impetus to the segment’s quarterly results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net earned premiums of the unit is $1.8 billion, indicating a 9.1% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s figure.
The consensus estimate for Aflac’s consolidated net earned premiums is pegged at $3.4 billion, indicating a 2.4% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for total net investment income is $952.6 million, indicating an 5.1% decline year over year.
Furthermore, expense ratios in both the segments are expected to have improved due to prudent expense management efforts. In addition to this, expense allowances from reinsurance agreements are likely to have boosted Aflac’s margins.
AFL Stock’s Price Performance
Aflac’s shares have gained 33.8% year to date compared with the industry’s 33.4% growth. It has also outperformed the broader Zacks Finance sector’s 17% rise and the S&P 500 index’s 21.9% increase in the said time frame.
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Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other companies from the Finance space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. BHF has an Earnings ESP of +1.22% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BHF’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.50 per share, indicating 7.7% growth from the year-ago quarter’s number.
Brighthouse Financial’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark once, the average surprise being 3.76%.
American Financial Group, Inc. AFG currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AFG’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.51 per share, indicating a 2.5% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reorted figure.
American Financial’s earnings beat estimates in two of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark twice, the average surprise being 0.27%.
Fidelity National Financial, Inc. FNF has an Earnings ESP of +0.30% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FNF’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.41 per share, indicating 14.6% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The consensus mark for third-quarter earnings has been revised 1.4% upward over the past 30 days.
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