A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Campbell's (CPB). Shares have added about 3.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Campbell due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Campbell's Q3 Earnings Surpass Estimates Despite Sales Weakness
The Campbell's Company reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, wherein the bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while sales missed expectations. Both earnings and revenues declined year over year, reflecting continued top-line softness, inflationary pressures and tariff-related costs.
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were 50 cents, down 32% year over year due to lower adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT). However, the bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 48 cents.Net sales of $2,366 million decreased 4% year over year and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,387 million. Organic net sales also declined 4%, primarily due to lower volume and unfavorable product mix, partially offset by positive net price realization. The quarter included a modest headwind from the noosa divestiture.
Adjusted gross profit declined 12% to $656 million. Adjusted gross margin contracted 240 basis points (bps) to 27.7%, mainly due to cost inflation, tariffs and other supply-chain costs. These pressures were partly offset by supply-chain productivity improvements, cost-savings initiatives and favorable pricing. Tariffs alone represented a gross margin headwind of about 310 bps during the quarter. Adjusted marketing and selling expenses increased 2% to $211 million, reflecting higher brand-building investments and marketing spending. Adjusted administrative expenses decreased 1% to $149 million due to savings initiatives and lower incentive compensation, partly offset by higher general administrative costs. Adjusted EBIT declined 24% to $274 million, primarily due to lower adjusted gross profit and higher marketing investments. Adjusted EBIT margin contracted 300 bps to 11.6%.
Decoding CPB’s Segmental Performance
Meals & Beverages: Net sales decreased 4% to $1,426 million. Organic net sales also declined 4% due to an unfavorable volume/mix of 5%, partly offset by 1% favorable net price realization. The segment faced a difficult comparison against strong soup demand in the prior year and a roughly 1% headwind related to shipment timing associated with the Sovos Brands ERP implementation and prior winter-storm delays. U.S. soup sales plunged 8%, though the company continued to benefit from resilient at-home cooking trends and strong performances from Rao’s, Swanson and Pacific Foods. Segment operating earnings fell 16% to $213 million due to inflation, tariffs and lower volume.
Snacks: Net sales declined 4% to $940 million, with organic net sales also down 4%. Volume/mix reduced sales by 6%, partially offset by 2% favorable price realization. Weakness stemmed primarily from salty snacks, crackers, fresh bakery products, third-party partner brands and contract manufacturing sales. Segment operating earnings decreased 32% to $95 million due to elevated inflation, tariffs, supply-chain costs and lower volumes, partly offset by productivity gains, pricing actions and cost savings. Management noted encouraging signs in Snacks, particularly in Goldfish, where core products remained stable for a second consecutive quarter, and in Pepperidge Farm fresh bakery, where service levels and in-stock performance improved. The company has also begun implementing a simplification strategy across its salty snacks portfolio to strengthen performance and profitability.
CPB: Strategic Highlights and Brand Performance
Campbell’s continued to benefit from durable at-home cooking trends, which supported growth in key cooking-oriented brands. Rao’s remained a standout performer, delivering 15% consumption growth during the quarter, with pasta sauce consumption increasing 13%. Rao’s generated approximately 75% of the total Italian sauce category growth and maintained its leadership position in dollar share across all regions. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, Campbell’s completed its acquisition of a 49% stake in La Regina on May 4, 2026, strengthening its commitment to the Rao’s platform and long-term growth strategy. The company also announced that all leadership brands have successfully transitioned to natural colors ahead of schedule, with the remaining regional Snacks brands expected to complete the transition by July 2026.
CPB’s Other Financial Metrics
At the end of the third quarter, Campbell’s had cash and cash equivalents of $402 million and total debt of $7,010 million. Cash flow from operations for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 totaled $839 million compared with $872 million in the prior-year period. Capital expenditures were $297 million during the period. The company returned $380 million to shareholders year to date, primarily through dividends, while share repurchases totaled $26 million. Campbell’s delivered approximately $20 million in savings during the quarter, bringing cumulative savings to $200 million toward its fiscal 2028 target of $375 million. Management expects these savings to help offset tariff and inflationary pressures while funding investments in growth initiatives.
CPB Reaffirms Fiscal 2026 Guidance
Campbell’s reaffirmed its previously issued fiscal 2026 outlook. The company continues to expect organic net sales to decline 1-2% year over year. Adjusted EBIT is projected to decrease 17-20%, while adjusted EPS is expected in the range of $2.15-$2.25, representing a decline of 23-26% from the adjusted fiscal 2025 base. Management expects low-single-digit core inflation excluding tariffs, productivity benefits equivalent to roughly 5% of cost of products sold, and approximately $70 million in enterprise cost savings for fiscal 2026. The company also anticipates adjusted net interest expense of $320-$325 million and capital expenditures of roughly $370 million. While management acknowledged ongoing consumer and cost pressures, it expressed confidence in the long-term strength of Campbell’s portfolio, the resilience of at-home cooking trends and the progress being made to improve execution and profitability across the Snacks business.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -8.36% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Campbell has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Campbell has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
