The upcoming U.S. Presidential election is one of the reasons behind the ongoing market volatility. The uncertainty regarding how the market will respond to the election outcomes presents a notable economic headwind. The decline in consumer confidence also paints a rather unclear picture of the economy.
Additionally, any action by the Fed that differs from market expectations could trigger an overreaction, leading to significant sell-offs and increased volatility. Jamie Dimon’s, JPMorgan Chase CEO, recent comments expressed concerns about rising geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty surrounding the economy’s long-term trajectory.
Dimon has consistently cautioned that the U.S. economy may be more vulnerable than many market analysts suggest. In August, according to Yahoo Finance, Dimon reiterated that the likelihood of a recession remains higher than the chance of avoiding one altogether.
Why a Cautious Stance for a Turbulent Election Season?
Tom Lee, one of the prominent Wall Street bulls, took a cautious tone as the November election approaches, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. Other analysts followed suit, maintaining the importance of a cautious stance by the investors.
Earlier this month, SoFi's Liz Young Thomas informed Business Insider, as quoted on Yahoo Finance, that election volatility can reach its peak in mid-October. However, investors can expect the market to rally after the elections.
In such a case, investors can also follow a “buy the dip” approach for growth funds instead of selling their high momentum and high growth funds, in addition to increasing their exposure to defensive funds. Investors can consider funds like Vanguard Growth ETF VUG, iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF IWF and iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF IVW.
The uncertainty surrounding the election results, along with concerns about future policies, has led to a slowdown in investment decisions by U.S. businesses. According to Fortune, about 30% of firms have either postponed, reduced or canceled their investment plans due to election-related uncertainty, marking an increase from 28% in the previous quarter, additionally preparing for lower revenues and employment growth this year.
How Fed Cuts Can Spark Market Overreactions and Sell-offs
The markets had already priced in the September rate cut, which is evident from the comparatively slow rally. The same may be the case for the two rate cuts expected in November and December. If the Fed implements interest rate cuts that are less than what the market anticipates, it may trigger an overreaction and significant sell-offs.
Consumer Confidence Plummets to a Three-Year Low
According to CNBC, consumer confidence fell sharply in September, marking the steepest decline in more than three years, driven by intensifying concerns about jobs and business conditions. The board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, marking the biggest one-month decline since August 2021.
According to Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, as quoted on Yahoo Finance, consumers turned pessimistic regarding future labor market conditions and were less optimistic about upcoming business conditions and their personal income.
ETFs to Consider
Below, we have highlighted a few ETF areas that investors could use to navigate the likely uncertain environment in a better way to protect themselves from the potential headwinds in the economy. In the event of a market overreaction and sell-off, increasing exposure to these ETFs can be a strategic move for investors.
By investing in these sectors, investors can not only protect their portfolios from potential downturns but also position themselves for gains during market upswings. These sectors offer a dual advantage, shielding investments during times of market distress while capturing growth opportunities when the broader market rises.
Quality ETFs
Amid market uncertainty, quality investing emerges as a strategic response as a potential buffer against the potential headwinds. This approach prioritizes identifying firms with robust fundamentals, consistent earnings and lasting competitive strengths. Investing in such high-quality companies can mitigate volatility for investors.
Investors can look at funds like iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF QUAL, Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF SPHQ, JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF JQUA and SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF QUS.
Value ETFs
Value stocks have a track of long-term outperformance and resilience against market trends. Characterized by solid fundamentals, they offer the potential for higher returns and lower volatility compared to growth and blend stocks.
Funds like Vanguard Value ETF VTV, iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF IWD, iShares S&P 500 Value ETF IVE and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF SPYV can be considered.
Consumer Staples ETFs
The potential slowdown in the economy could benefit consumer staple stocks, as these companies manufacture everyday necessities such as food, beverages and household items. Additionally, surging household debt levels could burn a significant hole in consumers’ pockets and prove to be a positive for these funds.
Investors can consider funds like Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund XLP, Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF VDC, iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF IYK and Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF FSTA.
Gold ETFs
In periods of economic uncertainty, like a recession, gold attracts more investors due to its enduring value. Frequently seen as a safe-haven investment, as returns on bonds, stocks and property decrease, interest in gold rises, boosting its value.
Investors can consider SPDR Gold Shares GLD, iShares Gold Trust IAU and abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF SGOL.
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SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): ETF Research Reports
iShares Gold Trust (IAU): ETF Research Reports
abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL): ETF Research Reports
Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV): ETF Research Reports
iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL): ETF Research Reports
Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC): ETF Research Reports
iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF (IYK): ETF Research Reports
iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF): ETF Research Reports
Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA): ETF Research Reports
iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD): ETF Research Reports
iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE): ETF Research Reports
SPDR MSCI USA StrategicFactors ETF (QUS): ETF Research Reports
Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG): ETF Research Reports
iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW): ETF Research Reports
SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF (SPYV): ETF Research Reports
JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF (JQUA): ETF Research Reports
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