Valero Energy (VLO) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) that is the largest independent refiner and marketer of petroleum products in the United States.
The stock has made a slow as steady move lower since April and due to the recent drop in crude oil, lower prices are warranted.
While the stock has a nice dividend and looks like a bargain to where it was earlier in the year, investors should be patient. If crude were to drop closer to $60, this stock could flush lower, and lose 2024 gains entirely.
About the Company
Valero Energy was founded in 1980, employs almost 10,000, and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Valero manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada and internationally. It operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol.
VLO is valued at $43 billion and has a Forward PE of 13. The stock holds Zacks Style Scores of “B” in Value and pays a 3.1% dividend.
Q2 Earnings
This company never misses earnings, so a 4% EPS beat in late July was not a surprise.
Revenues came in just short of expectations ant eh company commented that they see continued strength in the U.S. wholesale system.
However, crude oil was over $80 in late July. It is currently trading under $70 now and looks like it could continue lower.
There is concern that lower energy prices could lower margins for Valero and hurt upcoming earnings performance. This idea is evident with analyst lowering earnings estimates and price targets.
Earnings Estimates Plummeting
Looking back to before earnings, or the last 90 days, analysts have slashed Valero’s estimates aggressively.
For the current year, estimates have dropped from $5.01 to $2.09, over that time frame. That is a cut of 58%.
The current year has fallen from $16.29 to $10.26 (37%) and next year had dropped from $14.18 to $11.93 (16%).
As earnings projections have fallen, so have price targets:
-TD Cowen dropped their target to $143 from $170.
-Piper/Sandler has gone to $123 from $169.
-Goldman has lowered theirs to $131 from $149.
If oil continues to fall, the market will likely get more worried about Valero’s upcoming earnings.
Technical Take
The stock started the year off great, moving from $130 to $184. However, almost all those gains have been erased, with the stock trading around the $135 level.
The 50-day MA is below the 200-day MA, which signals a “Death Cross” for the stock. Investors should be patient as the stock looks like it could test the Q4 2023 support area around $120.
If oil sees further pressure, the $100 level has been long-term support and an area that long-term investors might be interested in.
In Summary
Valero Energy (VLO) faces significant challenges that raise concerns for investors. The sharp reductions in earnings estimates—down 58% for the current year—reflect a declining outlook as lower crude oil prices threaten to erode margins and earnings. Analysts have aggressively cut price targets, signaling a loss of confidence in the stock's short-term prospects.
While the dividend yield may seem attractive, the risks of a total loss of 2024 gains are mounting. With continued pressure on oil prices likely to impact Valero's performance, a cautious approach is warranted, suggesting that investors should hold off on new positions until the market shows clearer signs of stabilization.
For those interested in the space, a better option might be Murphey USA (MUSA). The stock is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and has been one of the strongest performers in the industry.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
