Everyone has eyes on the presidential election, which is less than two months away, and while all the fanfare is directed at the battle between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris to see who takes control of the White House, some are looking at other houses that could be in flux. Namely, the real estate market in Florida.
Learn More: I’m an Economist: Here’s My Prediction for the Housing Market If Trump Wins the Election
Read Next: How To Get Rich in Real Estate Starting With Just $1,000
“The housing markets of Florida are unique and respond to federal policies in different ways, such as the luxury tax in Palm Beach and the Social Security in Fort Myers,” explained realtor Scott Waters. “The difference in sensitivity of these markets to these policies is due to the different economic factors and demographics associated with each market.”
Waters and a few other real estate agents weighed in on the seven Florida housing markets where prices may fluctuate depending on whether Trump or Harris wins the election.
Naples
Naples is one of the most important markets for high-end residential properties and active adult communities and, thus, is highly sensitive to changes in the tax rates on capital gains and estates, according to Waters.
“A candidate supporting the reduction of capital gains taxes would likely be investors and retirees forming the high-end market in Naples,” Waters said. “On the other hand, the call for raising the capital gains tax rate or tightening the estate tax laws may discourage investors from buying luxury homes, thus reducing the prices of such properties.
“Due to its nature, the Naples market is frail regarding tax policy changes that can influence the behavior of wealthy buyers,” Waters added.
Learn More: I’m an Economist: My Prediction for Household Incomes in 2025 If Trump Wins the Election
Miami
“Where international finances are better allocated, Miami’s housing market has deployed its strength,” said Jonathan Ayala, founder and CEO of Hudson Condos. “The next administration goes the way of deregulation and abolishing taxes, we might expect more foreign participation, especially in the luxury homebuying segment.”
“Miami’s housing market could see increased foreign investment with Trump’s pro business stance, while Harris’ emphasis on affordable housing could lead to a shift in focus from luxury properties to more modest developments, impacting market values,” said Keith McCoy, the co-owner and co-founder at Midtown Homebuyers.
On the other hand, Ayala said, “If the government slaps taxes on foreign investment or rich Americans then the high-end real estate market might drop and some foreigners will hold back on buying luxury properties.”
Fort Myers
Waters said that the demographics of Fort Myers, which draws both the retired and families, have the federal healthcare and Social Security policies at the top of their minds.
“A presidential candidate advocating for increased Social Security benefits or better healthcare services would make Fort Myers an ideal place for retirees, hence increasing the demand,” Waters said.
Conversely, Waters noted, “Plans to reduce the funding for Social Security or healthcare may discourage retirees, thus slowing down the growth of the market. The factors that strongly influence the market dynamics of Fort Myers include the government policies on retirement and healthcare.”
Tampa Bay Area
In Ayala’s professional opinion, Tampa Bay is prominent as one of the fastest-growing regions in Florida because of new tech startups, corporations settling in and massive investments in infrastructure.
“If the next administration pays attention to infrastructure and promotes the growth of business, there is every possibility that [Tampa’s] expansion as a tech and business hub may remain a reality,” Ayala said.
“But a turnover that earmarks such regions but is dominated by others without any political concern for other sundry could result in stagnation, especially for regions that are haywire because of the tech productive growth,” Ayala said.
“Federal infrastructure policies remain supportive as Tampa is still in a growth phase requiring federal policies to create infrastructures and businesses,” Ayala stated, noting that if Harris or Trump takes a departure from those priorities, it could create an impact on housing demand.
Palm Beach
Waters described how Palm Beach is vulnerable to changes in federal tax policies, especially those that concern affluent clients and corporate investments.
“An aspiring candidate who vows to reduce the corporate tax or remove some deductions may make this county an ideal place for rich people and businesses; this can increase the demand in the luxury market,” Waters commented.
“On the other hand, policies may lead to a rise in taxes or a decrease in incentives for wealthy buyers, which may slow down the high-end market,” Waters said. “Therefore, changes in tax policies in the Palm Beach real estate market may impact high-net-worth investors’ purchasing behavior.”
The Villages
The Villages, one of the largest retirement communities not just in Florida, but in the United States, is geographically disadvantaged because of changes in federal health and retirement programs in Ayala’s point of view.
“If there are policies supporting more resources for Social Security and Medicare, it may increase the demand for retiree housing properties,” Ayala said. “Alternatively, elimination or devolution of such schemes may produce low influx of retirees which may lead to cooling off in property prices.
“The elderly population is more than ever in this market so anything that affects their financial security, specifically the healthcare or the Social Security changes will affect the housing demand also,” Ayala said.
Both Trump and Harris are going to have to define their plans for the next four years in these areas otherwise, the Villages could be in flux for pricing through 2029.
Jacksonville
In Florida, there are not a ton of affordable markets with appeal among younger families and professionals that are trending upwards, which is how Jacksonville stands out or at least it will maybe continue to do so until the election results.
“Jacksonville is a military hub, and its market could benefit from Trump’s defense spending,” McCoy pointed out, “while Harris’ social programs might create new affordable housing initiatives that could influence market pricing dynamics.”
There is the chance to prompt job growth and build a housing boom in Jacksonville, though the next president will have to figure out affordable housing that’s nationwide, which has previously left Jacksonville’s market in the doldrums.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.
More From GOBankingRates
- 6 Subtly Genius Moves All Wealthy People Make With Their Money
- 6 Fall Essentials To Buy at Aldi To Save Money
- 6 Strategies Anyone Can Use to Pay Off Debt
- I'm a Debt Expert: Here's How Social Media Warps Our Perceptions of Debt
This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 7 Florida Housing Markets Where Prices May Fluctuate Depending on If Trump or Harris Wins the Election
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
