This is An Unusually Volatile Bull Market
Although it may sound counterintuitive to a newer investor, historically, Wall Street’s largest daily upside gains occur during bear markets. The reason for this is that extremely oversold markets often lead to massive snapback/short-covering rallies. An excellent example occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic panic in 2020. Although stocks were in a brutal bear market, they delivered two 9% green sessions in March 2020. Similar massive upside days occurred following the tariff-induced tantrum of early 2025 and the Iran War fear of early 2026.
However, OddStats (@OddStats) points out that “For the first time in 26 years, the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) has had four 3+/- sessions in 12 trading days while NOT being in a bear market or correction.” In other words, although the bulls are in control of the intermediate-to long-term trend, markets are unusually volatile.
June: The Good & The Bad
Wall Street veterans understand that summer corrections and volatility are often the norm, as deep-pocketed institutional investors often take their vacations during the summer months. Adding to this pressure in 2026 is the fact that investors are dealing with upcoming mid-term elections, which often create uncertainty and cause selling pressure. In fact, since 1950, June has been the weakest month of the year during mid-term election years, averaging a loss of ~2%.
Image Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson Investment Research
However, according to Ryan Detrick of Carson Investment Research (@RyanDetrick) stocks have NEVER peaked in June. In other words, the current correction is likely to be met with buyers sooner rather than later.
Image Source: Ryan Detrick, Carson Investment Research
Market Sentiment is in the Gutter
Market sentiment is one of the best indicators of whether a correction will persist. For instance, near the early 2026 lows, bearish sentiment among investors spiked (providing a perfect contrarian indicator).
Surprisingly, although stocks have ripped off their early 2026 lows, investors remain overwhelmingly bearish. For instance, the latest AAII Sentiment Survey suggests that bearish sentiment outweighs bullish sentiment.
Image Source: AAII
Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Indicator has flipped from “Greed” at the beginning of May to “Fear” today.
Image Source: CNN
Bottom Line
Ultimately, Wall Street's current whirlwind is a classic example of a market climbing a "wall of worry." It is easy to let short-term volatility scare you into cash, but veterans know that when seasonal mid-term election anxiety meets widespread investor fear, it creates the ideal environment for a strong contrarian rally. Keep your eyes on the broader trend, treat the summer slump as temporary, and look for opportunities where the fearful crowd is leaving high-quality stocks on the discount rack.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
