In 24 days, millions of Americans will head to the polls. Many others have already begun early voting.
DecisionDesk HQ predicts that former President Donald Trump has a 48% chance of returning to the Oval Office for a second term. According to its model, Republicans have a 71% chance of winning the Senate and 54% chance of holding on to control of the House of Representatives.
While these are only estimates that could prove to be wrong, there's a real possibility that the GOP will hold the presidency and both chambers of Congress in 2025. Here are three no-brainer stocks to buy if Trump and Republicans sweep in November.
1. ExxonMobil
Trump wants U.S. "energy dominance." He wants to expand drilling for oil and gas on federal lands. He's against several renewable energy initiatives that would reduce the country's dependence on fossil fuels. Attendees at his political rallies will often hear him proclaim, "Drill, baby, drill."
It's uncertain exactly how much Trump's policies would benefit the oil and gas industry. However, perception can become reality. And the perception is a second Trump administration will almost certainly be highly favorable to oil companies. As the biggest U.S. oil producer by market cap, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) stands to be a big winner if the former president becomes the next president.
Things are already looking up for ExxonMobil. The company recently delivered its second-highest second-quarter earnings of the last decade. ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources significantly increased its upstream production capabilities.
The stock could be a big winner over the long term regardless of which political party is in power. ExxonMobil is investing heavily in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. Thanks to its 2023 acquisition of Denbury, the company owns the largest CO2 pipeline network in the U.S. If ExxonMobil's CCS bet pays off, the oil producer will drill, baby, drill for decades to come.
2. Coinbase Global
Trump was skeptical about cryptocurrency in the past. He isn't now. In July, he told the audience at a major cryptocurrency conference that he wants the U.S. to become the "crypto capital of the planet." The former president has committed to implementing several cryptocurrency-friendly policies. Republicans even included language in their official party platform promising to defend Americans' right to their digital assets.
For these reasons, another Trump term could be music to the ears of Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) shareholders. The company operates one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges. Roughly $226 billion was traded through Coinbase in the quarter ending June 30, 2024.
Coinbase has been a highly volatile stock since its initial public offering in 2021 as evidenced by its super-high beta coefficient of 3.35. The huge swings in its share price have been in part due to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market itself, especially with the failure of several top crypto platforms.
However, a presidential administration that actively supports cryptocurrency could create a more stable environment in which Coinbase could flourish. Wall Street already thinks the stock should be a big winner even before the election results are in. The average 12-month price target for Coinbase reflects an upside potential of 53%.
3. Costco Wholesale
Presidential policies can have both positive and negative impacts. Many economists have roundly criticized Trump's proposed tariffs on all imported products. For example, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that those tariffs could cause inflation to spike to as much as 7.4% above baseline by 2026.
Higher inflation would hurt many companies. But it could help Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST). The company's membership warehouses and e-commerce websites offer low prices on a wide range of products. When Americans are pinching their pennies, they shop more at Costco.
However, Costco doesn't need inflation levels to rise to deliver strong results. The company has continued to grow regardless of the macroeconomic environment.
The biggest knock against Costco is valuation. Shares trade at a forward earnings multiple of 49.5. But this premium price underscores just how much investors prize Costco's resilient business model. This stock is likely to reward shareholders no matter who occupies the White House and controls Congress next year.
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Keith Speights has positions in ExxonMobil. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Coinbase Global and Costco Wholesale. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
