What Nasdaq Data Reveals About the Growing GLP-1 Market

Exclusive data from Nasdaq and Komodo Health is giving investors critical insights into one of the most popular technological developments in years: the diabetes and weight loss drugs known as GLP-1 Agonists (GLP-1s).

These therapies are causing a titanic shift across pharmaceuticals, and healthcare broadly, and they are also a colossal force in the market, leading to big profits on the back of growing demand.

Despite the initial approval of a GLP-1 drug in 2005 and Ozempic's FDA approval in 2017, the market's rapid expansion has largely occurred within the past two years, and it is still evolving. Just this month, CVS Caremark made major news in the developing market by announcing a shift in preference to Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 drugs, including Ozempic and Wegovy, over Eli Lilly’s competing therapies Mounjaro and Zepbound.

Traders scrambled on the news, with Eli Lilly’s stock declining in response, but the significance of the CVS Caremark decision has been difficult to quantify.

What the Nasdaq Data Reveals

This alternative data comes from the newly unveiled Nasdaq Medical Claims Insights (NMCI), and demonstrates that this formulary realignment isn’t just a policy update, it’s a structural shift with immediate downstream effects on prescription volume, brand switching behavior and potential long-term market share.

• CVS Caremark commands a substantial market share as a pharmacy benefit manager processor, managing 29% of overall patients in our comprehensive dataset.
• Within the GLP-1 therapeutic category, CVS Caremark's market influence is even more pronounced, controlling 41% of patient access.
• Current market distribution within CVS managed plans shows Novo Nordisk with 59% GLP-1 patient share versus Eli Lilly's 40%.
• Perhaps most consequentially, 36% of Eli Lilly's entire GLP-1 patient population is currently managed through CVS Caremark plans.

Ahead of the CVS news, NMCI’s data showed a market that was shifting in favor of Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 therapies.

• Patients have been switching to Zepbound and Mounjaro at unprecedented rates: 14% of current Zepbound users switched from Ozempic or Wegovey in 2023.
• Therapy churn has been high: Between 2023-2024 13% of patients switched to another GLP-1, 30% discontinued altogether, 1% moved to a non-Mounjaro/Zepbound GLP-1, and 56% remained on Ozempic.
• And new patient volume is exploding: In 2024, 54% of GLP-1 users were entirely new to the therapy category – not previously on any GLP-treatment.

How Nasdaq is Driving Healthcare Insights

NMCI’s real value lies in its ability to go deeper. By tracking real-time anonymized claims data across over 330 million U.S. patients, NMCI gives institutional investors an unprecedented vantage point into medical trends.

In fact, as CVS’s formulary transformation takes effect in July, NMCI will track prescription displacement, patient churn and plan level adjustments in near real-time – surfacing signals well before they’re reflected in corporate earnings.

“This recent CVS decision exemplifies how formulary changes can operate as early indicators of revenue redistribution and serve as catalysts for broader competitive realignment in pharmaceuticals,” said Benjamin Evans, Lead Data Scientist at Nasdaq. “Investors and industry stakeholders will need precise, timely data to navigate this evolving competitive landscape as the GLP-1 market continues its explosive growth trajectory.”

By combining broad population coverage with granular claims data, NMCI gives users a statistically robust view into where the market is heading and who is driving it. That model reflects a broader need across the investment and healthcare landscape.

“We built NMCI to meet a growing demand: the need for real-time anonymized patient-level insights that go beyond the headlines and earnings calls,” Evans explained. “This dataset was designed with investors in mind – from systematic funds and discretionary managers to healthcare-focused private equity, enabling them to monitor payer behavior, anticipate drug switching trends and quantify market moving events like formulary changes.”

Learn more about how Nasdaq Alternative Data around pharmaceutical and U.S. healthcare industries is driving more informed investment decisions and strategies.

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