Streaming audio leader Spotify’s stock (NYSE: SPOT) went up by 4.2% to $234 in the last five trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 0.8% over the last five trading days. Since the start of 2021, Spotify’s stock is down 26% as investors have not been convinced by its first two quarter results. In Q2 2021, the increase in Monthly Average Users (MAU’s) was just below the bottom end of management’s guidance range – the company had increased the price in more than 30 markets, which led to the belief that the customers are more price sensitive than expected. In response, the CEO stated that the drop was due to a technical issue with email verification systems which made it difficult to sign up for any kind of Spotify service for a couple of weeks. In the past few days the stock has recovered slightly. Now, will the company continue the upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a fall in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price using multiple years of historical stock data, returns for SPOT’s stock average around 1.5% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after rising 4.2% in a week (five trading days). But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding SPOT stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Spotify stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF SPOT stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, SPOT stock moves an average of 2.5% with a 57.3% probability of a positive return over this period.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Spotify Stock Movements
Question 1: Is the average return for Spotify stock higher after a drop?
Answer:
Case 1: Spotify stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Spotify stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Spotify stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
SPOT stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 2.5% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 1.9% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Spotify stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer:
If you buy and hold Spotify stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For SPOT stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Spotify after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer:
The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
SPOT’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Spotify stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
