Nasdaq Markets Outlook

A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq's IR team.

#marketseverywhere | DEFLATION = nothing to fear, in fact, desirable | "To suggest that consumers postpone their buying of goods because prices are expected to fall would mean that people have abandoned any desire to live in the present. Without the maintenance of life in the present, no future life is conceivable."

-Frank Shostak

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities LOWER / TYields + Oil + Dollar + Gold HIGHER

-busy macro week (jobs data Fri) + FedSpeak

-China Factory Activity Posts Worst Contraction in Six Months - Bloomberg

-Red Sea + Houthis/Iran = geopolitical tensions rise

DJ -0.3% S&P500 -0.9% Nasdaq -1.5% R2K -0.3% Cdn TSX -0.5%

Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 3.952%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,064, WTI +0%, $72; Brent +0%, $77, Bitcoin $45,584

2) Market health...

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

* source: Grindstone Intelligence (TOP); Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (BOTTOM)

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

* source: Goldmans Sachs Global Investment Research

* source: BofA

3) 2023 = a roller coaster ride...

* source: Piper Sandler

4) Financial Conditions have been easing...hopefully will not bring another wave of inflation!

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5) Falling US Treasury Yields due to expectations of rate cuts as inflationary pressure has been easing = positively impacting equities...

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

2024 = the year of rate cuts + monetary easing?

* source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

6) "2024 promises to be unusually electorally exciting due to the sheer amount of voting across the democratic world—and over what issues." -Joseph C. Sternberg, WSJ

* source: Deutsche Bank

7) 2023: Growth > Value

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

8) 2023 flows... | rising yields made cash instruments attractive

Inflows to equities were in-line w/ historical averages

* source: BofA, The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett

9) Passive = 53% | Active = 47%

* source: BofA's Savita

10) 2023 Performance...

* source: Factset, created by Gavin Zaentz

11) 2023 = #QualityMatters

* source: Piper Sandler

12) Gold & Oil performance...

* source: John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management

13) Busy week for macro data with Friday's job report perhaps the most important...

* source: Grindstone Intelligence

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

Strong Wind Generation Turns European Power Prices Negative - BNN 

-Strong wind generation and low demand during the holiday period sent electricity prices below zero in Germany, while wholesale markets turned negative for some hours in France, Denmark and Britain.

-Sub-zero prices are a preview of what’s to come for European markets if a flood of planned renewable production isn’t met with a shift in demand. The mismatch may get more pronounced until bigger electric car fleets, smarter grids and better battery technologies catch up.
 

What climate records were broken in 2023 - AJ

-The world has experienced the highest mean temperature on record for the first 11 months of the year, 1.46 degrees Celsius (2.63 degrees Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average.

-"[Year] 2023 has now had six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons,” - Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

• Central banks poised for rate cuts in 2024, investors & economists predict-FT
• UK economy will enter ‘grey gloom’ until polling day, economists say-FT
• RBA rate relief arriving in September: economist survey-AFR
• Bank of Korea's Rhee eyes warning signs prolonged monetary tightening-RTRS
• China’s factory activity picks up, private survey shows-BBG
• China’s patchy recovery keeps Asia’s factories in a slump-BBG
• Euro zone economy likely entered recession last year-RTRS
• South Korea Dec exports up for third month but at slower pace-RTRS
• China home sales fall again as policy shifts fail to stem decline-BBG
• US office owners face $117bn wall of debt repayments-FT
• Maersk halts Red Sea shipping as US Navy sinks Houthi boats-BBG
• Fighting between Hamas and Israel, Palestinian death toll passes 22,000-RTRS
• Beijing criticises Netherlands' move to block ASML exports to China-RTRS
• Putin says he wants peace in Ukraine but on Russia’s own terms-BBG
• China's Xi and Biden exchange congratulations 45 years diplomatic ties-RTRS
• Israel’s top court strikes down law overhauling the judiciary-FT
• Japan earthquake death toll rises to 48 as military joins relief effort-FT

• DoorDash plots expansion outside core restaurant business in US-FT
• US pressured Netherlands to block China-bound chip machinery-BBG
• BT chief Jansen approached about WPP chairmanship-SKY
• ExxonMobil hands over operations at West Qurna 1 oilfield to PetroChina-RTRS
• HSBC takes on Revolut, wise with new forex app for non-customers-BBG
• Point72 fund joins short-sellers targeting Hargreaves Lansdown-TIMES
• Apple’s $85bn-a-year services business faces legal reckoning-FT

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Slow demand set to keep oil price near $80/b in 2024, Reuters poll shows-RTRS 2) US oil output fell in October for first time since April -EIA-RTRS 3) China issues massive crude oil import quotas at start of year-BBG 4) India’s crude oil imports from russia Plunge on payment issues-BBG 5) Nigerian oil firms to be required to supply 483,000 bpd to local refineries-RTRS 6) Brazil shows concern as Venezuela slams UK warship sent to Guyana-RTRS 7) Commodities 2024: Global crude supplies seen giving Biden wiggle room on oil sanctions-PLATTS