It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Vulcan Materials (VMC). Shares have lost about 13.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Vulcan due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Vulcan Materials Company before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Vulcan Stock Down as Q4 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates
Vulcan reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results, with adjusted earnings and revenues missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate. On a year-over-year basis, the top line increased, but the bottom line declined.
Vulcan’s Q4 Earnings & Revenues
The quarter’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.13 by 20.2%. Also, the value declined 21.7% from an adjusted EPS of $2.17 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Total revenues of $1.91 billion also missed the consensus mark of $1.94 billion by 1.6%, but grew 3.2% year over year.
Vulcan’s Segments in Detail
Aggregates
Revenues from the segment increased 3.2% to $1.52 billion from the year-ago period. Aggregates shipments (volumes) grew 2.2% year over year to 55.1 million tons. Our model expected Aggregates revenues of $1.55 billion on 54.4 million tons of shipments.
Freight-adjusted average sales price rose to $21.78 per ton from the prior-year level of $21.41. Our estimate for the same was pegged at $22.36 per ton. Freight-adjusted revenues were up 3.9% from the prior-year quarter’s level to $1.2 billion.
Gross profit of $435.8 million increased from the prior-year figure of $486.5 million, but the gross margin contracted 430 basis points (bps) to 28.7%. Cash gross profit per ton decreased 6.7% to $10.73.
Asphalt and Concrete
Revenues in the Asphalt segment were $300.7 million (lower than our expectation of $333.4 million), down 8.1% year over year. The segment generated a gross profit of $41 million compared with $46.1 million a year ago. Volumes were down to 3.0 million tons from 3.4 million tons a year ago, with the sales price declining slightly to $82.09.
Revenues from the Concrete segment were up 29.3% year over year to $211.4 million (compared with our expectation of $185.6 million). Gross profit totaled $10.1 million, up from $4.6 million in the year-ago period. Shipments grew to 1.1 million cubic yards from 0.9 million cubic yards on a year-over-year basis. Sales prices increased 2.9% to $188.38 from $183.07 in the prior-year quarter.
Operating Highlights of Vulcan
Selling, administrative and general expenses — as a percentage of total revenues — contracted 40 bps to 7.1% from a year ago.
Adjusted EBITDA during the quarter decreased year over year by 5.8% to $518 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin declining 260 bps to 27.1%.
Glimpse of Vulcan’s 2025 Results
For the full year, Vulcan reported total revenues of $7.94 billion, up from $7.42 billion reported in 2024. Aggregates shipments during the year increased year over year to 226.8 million tons from 219.9 million tons.
The company’s gross profit increased 8.8% year over year to $2.18 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 29.3% from 27.7% reported a year ago.
The full-year adjusted EPS increased to $8.00 from $7.53 reported in 2024.
Vulcan’s Financials
As of Dec. 31, 2025, Vulcan’s cash and cash equivalents were $183.3 million, down from $559.7 million at 2024-end. Long-term debt of $4.36 billion was down from $4.91 billion at 2024-end.
As of Dec. 31, total debt to trailing-12-month adjusted EBITDA was 1.9x, down from 2.6x as of Dec. 31, 2024.
In 2025, net cash provided by operating activities was $1.81 billion, up from $1.41 billion a year ago.
Vulcan’s Unveils 2026 Guidance
Under the Aggregates segment, Vulcan expects continued improvement in cash gross profit per ton compared with $11.33 in 2025. Shipment growth is expected between 1% and 3% year over year. Freight-adjusted price improvement is projected between 4% and 6%. Freight-adjusted unit cash cost is expected to increase in the low-single digits.
The total Asphalt and Concrete segment’s cash gross profit is expected to be approximately $290 million compared with $322 million in 2025. The outlook excludes California ready-mixed concrete assets held for sale. The Asphalt segment is expected to contribute about 85% of segment profit, while the Concrete segment is expected to contribute about 15%.
Vulcan expects Selling, Administrative and General expenses to be between $580 million and $590 million compared with $564 million in 2025. Interest expense is expected to be approximately $225 million.
Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is projected between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion, indicating continued demand strength and operational discipline.
The company expects capital expenditures to be between $750 million and $800 million for maintenance and growth projects. Depreciation, depletion, accretion and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $700 million. The effective tax rate is expected to remain in the range of 22% to 23%. Net earnings attributable to the company are expected to be between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -6.12% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Vulcan has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Vulcan has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
