Key Points
Tractor Supply missed on both sales and earnings this morning.
Same-store sales grew an anemic 0.5%.
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Tractor Supply (NASDAQ: TSCO) stock tumbled 9.6% through 11:55 a.m. ET Tuesday after missing on both sales and earnings this morning.
Heading into the suburban farm store's Q1 2026 report, analysts forecast Tractor Supply to earn $0.34 per share on just over $3.6 billion in sales. In fact, Tractor Supply earned only $0.31 per share, and sales were just under $3.6 billion.
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Tractor Supply Q1 earnings
Tractor Supply grew its sales a modest 4% year over year in Q1. Still, earnings declined 9%, largely because of increased spending on selling, general, and administrative expenses, which grew more than 6% year over year. Same-store sales growth was anemic at just 0.5%, but online sales helped make up the difference, growing double digits, according to management.
The good news is that Tractor Supply is predicting better results as the year progresses. Same-store sales could grow 1% to 3% in 2026 and, combined with growing online sales, total sales growth might stretch as high as 6% -- not barn-burning growth exactly, but still an improvement.
What's next for Tractor Supply stock?
Best of all, Tractor Supply is predicting full-year earnings per share of $2.13 to $2.23. At the midpoint, that's $2.18 -- a penny ahead of Wall Street forecasts, and enough to more than make up for Tractor Supply's temporary miss in Q1, and put the stock back on "trac."
That said, though, I still don't think this stock is a "buy."
Why? Simple: Tractor Supply stock currently trades for about 22 times trailing earnings. Even after factoring in a 2.1% dividend yield, that's too much to pay for a stock that might grow mid-single digits this year, and -- best case -- 10% on average over the next five years, according to analysts.
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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tractor Supply. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short April 2026 $55 calls on Tractor Supply. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
