A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Red Robin (RRGB). Shares have lost about 9.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Red Robin due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Red Robin Q3 Earnings & Revenues Top Estimates
Red Robin reported fiscal third-quarter 2025 revenues of $265.1 million, down 3.5% year over year from $274.6 million. The figure, however, beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $263 million. Comparable restaurant revenues declined 1.2% (down 1.3% excluding deferred loyalty revenue), as traffic fell 3%.
On the bottom line, the company posted an adjusted loss of 70 cents per share, narrower-than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 78 cents. This compared favorably with a loss of $1.03 per share in the year-ago quarter. Net loss was $18.4 million versus a loss of $18.9 million last year.
Margins & Profitability
Red Robin reported restaurant-level operating profit of $25.8 million, up from $24.2 million in the prior year. Restaurant-level operating margin expanded 90 basis points year over year to 9.9%, driven primarily by labor efficiency improvements. Adjusted EBITDA rose 81% year over year to $7.6 million, with adjusted operating loss at $12.1 million, or negative 4.6% of revenues, versus a loss of $12.9 million last year.
Q3 Balance Sheet & Liquidity
The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $21.7 million and total liquidity of $50.7 million, including availability under its credit facility. Long-term debt stood at $172.4 million, down from $181.6 million at the end of fiscal 2024. No share repurchases were announced.
RRGB’s FY25 Outlook
For fiscal 2025, Red Robin still expects revenues of about $1.2 billion. Management reaffirmed restaurant-level operating margin guidance of at least 12.5% and adjusted EBITDA in the range of at least $65 million. Comparable restaurant sales are projected to decline 4% for the remainder of the year.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
At this time, Red Robin has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Red Robin has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Red Robin is part of the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry. Over the past month, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), a stock from the same industry, has gained 3.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended September 2025 more than a month ago.
Cheesecake Factory reported revenues of $907.23 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.8%. EPS of $0.68 for the same period compares with $0.58 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Cheesecake Factory is expected to post earnings of $0.98 per share, indicating a change of -5.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.2% over the last 30 days.
The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Cheesecake Factory. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
