A month has gone by since the last earnings report for NRG Energy (NRG). Shares have lost about 17.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is NRG due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for NRG Energy, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
NRG Energy Q4 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Expectations
NRG Energy, Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.03 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.01 by 2%. However, the bottom line decreased 32.2% from the year-ago quarter.
Revenues of NRG Energy
Total revenues were $7.75 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.32 billion by 45.9%. The top line also increased 13.7% from the prior-year quarter’s level of $6.82 billion.
Full-year 2025 revenues totaled $30.71 billion compared with $28.13 billion last year.
Highlights of NRG’s Q4 Earnings Release
The company recorded adjusted EBITDA of $847 million in the fourth quarter, down 6.1% from $902 billion registered a year ago.
Total operating costs and expenses in 2025 amounted to $28.84 billion, up 11.3% from $25.91 billion in the prior year.
Operating income for the year totaled $1.85 billion compared with $2.42 billion last year.
In 2025, the company returned $1.6 billion to shareholders through $1.3 billion in share repurchases and $344 million in common stock dividends.
NRG’s Financial Highlights
As of Dec. 31, 2025, NRG had cash and cash equivalents worth $4.71 billion compared with $0.97 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024.
As of Dec. 31, 2025, long-term debt and finance leases amounted to $16.41 billion compared with $9.81 billion as of Dec. 31, 2024.
Cash provided by operating activities in 2025 totaled $1.91 billion compared with $2.31 billion last year.
Capital expenditures summed at $1.15 billion in 2025 compared with $0.47 billion last year.
NRG’s Guidance
NRG Energy expects its 2026 adjusted net income to be in the range of $1.685-$2.115 billion.
The company expects its 2026 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $7.90-$9.90. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $9.79, which is at the higher end of the company’s guided range.
Free Cash Flow before Growth for 2026 is anticipated to be in the range of $2.8-$3.3 billion.
NRG projects 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the band of $5.325-$5.825 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -22.75% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, NRG has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, NRG has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
