It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS). Shares have lost about 2.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Mosaic's Q4 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates on Weak Volumes
Mosaic reported a loss of $1.64 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025. This compares unfavorably with earnings of 53 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 22 cents, down from 45 cents a year ago. It lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 48 cents.
Net sales rose nearly 6% year over year to roughly $2.97 billion in the quarter. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.21 billion.
Segment Highlights
Net sales in the Potash segment were $0.7 billion in the reported quarter, up around 17% from the prior-year quarter. Sales volume totaled 2.2 million tons, remaining flat year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 2.6 million tons. The segment’s gross margin rose to $115 per ton from $55 per ton in the year-ago quarter. The average MOP selling price increased to $264 per ton from $199 per ton.
The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1 billion, down from $1.2 billion in the year-ago quarter. Sales volume in the segment totaled 1.3 million tons, down from 1.6 million tons last year. The figure lagged our estimate of 1.9 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $17 per ton, down from $85 per ton. The average DAP selling price rose to $686 per ton from $593 per ton a year ago.
Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were $1.1 billion in the quarter, remaining flat year over year. Sales volume in the quarter was 2.1 million tons, down from 2.2 million tons. The figure lagged our estimate of 3.2 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $10 per ton, down from $46 per ton in the prior-year quarter.
Financials
At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $276.6 million, up 1.4% from the prior-year quarter. Long-term debt was roughly $4.25 billion, up around 28% year over year.
Net cash used in operating activities was $56.1 million in the reported quarter.
Outlook
Mosaic expects potash sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 to be between 2 million tons and 2.2 million tons, with realized mine gate MOP prices projected in the range of $255-$275 per ton.
Phosphate sales volumes are forecast to be 1.7-1.9 million tons for the first quarter. DAP prices on an FOB basis are expected to be in the band of $640-$670 per ton.
Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 are projected to be below the prior-year quarter.
For full-year 2026, the company expects phosphate production volumes at or above 7 million tons, while potash production is projected at roughly 9 million tons.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
The consensus estimate has shifted -60.87% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Mosaic has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Mosaic belongs to the Zacks Fertilizers industry. Another stock from the same industry, CF Industries (CF), has gained 33.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2025.
CF reported revenues of $1.87 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +22.8%. EPS of $2.99 for the same period compares with $1.89 a year ago.
CF is expected to post earnings of $2.15 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +16.2%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2.1%.
CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock
This under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.
With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.
See This Stock Now for Free >>The Mosaic Company (MOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
