A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC). Shares have added about 5.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Marriott Vacations Worldwide due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Marriott Vacations’ Q2 Earnings & Revenues Top, Reaffirms ‘25 View
Marriott Vacations reported exceptional results for its second quarter of 2025, with adjusted earnings and revenues topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate and growing year over year.
The quarter’s performance benefited from higher Vacation Ownership sales and rentals, alongside the company’s digitization initiatives and expansion efforts. During the quarter, forward bookings remained strong, with strength seen in Maui, Coastal Florida and the Caribbean.
Q2 Earnings and Revenue Performance
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.96 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72 by 14%. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of $1.10.
Quarterly revenues of $1.25 billion also topped the consensus mark of $1.22 billion by 1.9% and increased 9% on a year-over-year basis.
Segment Highlights
Vacation Ownership: Revenue (excluding cost reimbursements) rose 12% year over year to $775 million. Consolidated contract sales were $445 million, down 1% year over year, as a 2% rise in tours offset lower volume per guest (VPG). Segment adjusted EBITDA rose 28% to $231 million, with margin expanding 380 bps to 29.8%.
Exchange & Third-Party Management: Revenue declined 10% year over year to $51 million, reflecting lower Interval International revenue. Adjusted EBITDA fell 7% to $23 million, though margin improved slightly to 45.9%.
Corporate and Other: Expenses rose 12% due to higher variable compensation.
Margins and Profitability
Adjusted EBITDA jumped 29% year over year to $203 million, translating to a 24.3% margin, up from 20.7% a year ago.
Adjusted operating income rose to $110 million, marking a 57% increase. Margin expansion was driven by higher segment profitability, particularly in Vacation Ownership, and expense discipline.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
The company ended the second quarter with $799 million in liquidity, comprising $205 million of cash and equivalents and $539 million in available credit.
Total inventory stood at $1 billion, while debt included $3 billion in corporate debt and $2 billion in non-recourse securitized debt tied to vacation ownership notes receivable.
Share repurchase activity was limited during the quarter, with management emphasizing debt management and cash preservation.
2025 Outlook Reiterated
For 2025, Marriott Vacations reaffirmed guidance, with contract sales expected to be between $1.74-$1.83 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $750-$780 million, and adjusted EPS of $6.40-$7.10.
Management highlighted confidence in continued demand for leisure travel and reiterated $150-$200 million in expected EBITDA benefits from its modernization program by 2026. Free cash flow for 2025 is projected at $270-$330 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Marriott Vacations Worldwide has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Marriott Vacations Worldwide belongs to the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry. Another stock from the same industry, Royal Caribbean (RCL), has gained 13.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2025.
Royal Caribbean reported revenues of $4.54 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +10.4%. EPS of $4.38 for the same period compares with $3.21 a year ago.
Royal Caribbean is expected to post earnings of $5.66 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
Royal Caribbean has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
