A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD). Shares have lost about 12.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
ACAD Q4 Earnings Beat, Nuplazid & Daybue Drive Y/Y Revenue Growth
Acadiareported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of 16 cents (excluding tax benefit), which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 12 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported adjusted EPS of 17 cents.
Including the tax benefit recognized from a one-time impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the company reported EPS of $1.60 for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with EPS of 86 cents in the year-ago quarter.
In the fourth quarter, Acadia recorded total revenues of $284 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $293 million. ACAD’s net product revenues comprise sales of its two marketed products, Nuplazid (pimavanserin) and Daybue (trofinetide).
Total revenues increased 9% year over year, driven by contributions from Daybue and continued growth in Nuplazid's market share.
ACAD’s Q4 Earnings in Detail
Revenues from Nuplazid increased 7% year over year to $174.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven primarily by volume growth. Nuplazid sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $184.1 million.
Daybue recorded net product sales of $109.6 million in the reported quarter, up 13% year over year, driven by the growth in the drug’s unit sales as Acadia shipped to more unique patients. The reported figure was a tad higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $108.4 million.
Research and development (R&D) expenses were $84.8 million, down 16% year over year, due to a $28 million upfront business development payment for ACP-711 that was made in the year-ago quarter to Saniona.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $155.6 million, up 20% year over year, owing to increased marketing investments to support Nuplazid and Daybue field expansion and marketing costs.
Acadia had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $820 million as of Dec. 31, 2025, compared with $847 million as of Sept. 30, 2025.
ACAD’s Full-Year 2025 Results
In 2025, Acadia recorded total revenues of $1.07 billion, representing 12% year-over-year growth. The figure, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08 billion.
The company reported adjusted EPS of 82 cents in 2025, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 80 cents. Acadia reported GAAP EPS of $2.30 in 2025 compared with $1.36 reported in 2024.
ACAD’s 2026 Financial Outlook
Acadia expects total revenues from the U.S. sales of its products to be in the range of $1.22-$1.28 billion in 2026. Nuplazid net product sales are expected to be in the range of $760-$790 million, while U.S. sales of Daybue are expected to be between $460 million and $490 million.
R&D expenses in 2026 are projected to be in the range of $385-$410 million, while SG&A expenses are expected to be between $660 million and $700 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
The consensus estimate has shifted -60.94% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Acadia has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a score of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Acadia is part of the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Over the past month, Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), a stock from the same industry, has gained 0.7%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended December 2025 more than a month ago.
Axsome reported revenues of $196 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +65%. EPS of -$0.71 for the same period compares with -$0.96 a year ago.
For the current quarter, Axsome is expected to post a loss of $0.78 per share, indicating a change of +2.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -10% over the last 30 days.
Axsome has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of C.
Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2026
Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2026. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful.
From inception in 2012 through November, 2025, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,530.8%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +570.3%.
Sheraz has combed through 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank and handpicked the best 10 to buy and hold in 2026. You can still be among the first to see these just-released stocks with enormous potential.
See New Top 10 Stocks >>ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
