When Will Countries Lift Their Coronavirus Lockdowns? Deutsche Bank Offers Up A Blueprint.
When might the world end those lockdowns that are battering economies, but keeping people alive? Deutsche Bank offers some insight.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank have come up with a ballpark idea of global lockdown lifts. They rely on what’s been seen in China, where daily life is returning to normal, somewhat.
When will the coronavirus lockdowns end? We all want to know, even as they help keep people alive and hospitals from collapsing, but also create an economic meltdown.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank have come up with a ballpark idea, which naturally relies on what’s been seen in China, where daily life is returning to normal, even if the economy is still showing a strain.
China’s biggest quarantines were in the epicenter of the outbreak, the city of Wuhan, then across its Hubei province. In early March, officials began encouraging those outside Hubei to go back to work, on Mar. 25 Hubei’s travel restrictions were lifted, while Wuhan is expected to see those ease on Apr. 8. Hubei’s peak in new cases hit on Jan. 26, declining steadily from that point.
A team led by analyst Luke Templeman and strategist Jim Reid notes that a second or third lockdown might be needed for different countries. Based on Hubei’s experience, they believe the U.S. and Germany may start to lift restrictions on May 22. Italy’s first lift may come on May 7, given its severe outbreak began sooner, while Spain and France are looking at May 18, with the U.K. pegged at May 23.
Deutsche Bank’s team notes that there are big differences between Hubei province’s experience and elsewhere in the world, as it was the first region to deal with the outbreak, and countries are now armed with much better information.
So what happens when countries start to reopen in four to six weeks? Probably they will stagger their reopenings, and travel may be the last thing to get back to normal, say the analysts. They suggested immunity passports could be developed if the technology is there, otherwise travel may come with mandatory periods of self-isolation.
“So the global economy will have to deal with the consequences of countries opening up their domestic economy before their international one,” they say. “Nevertheless by June, workers within countries will have resumed their jobs, retail stores will be open, and restaurants functioning.”
Another big unknown is how Covid-19 might flare up again. Another big outbreak later in 2020 may mean resumption of restrictions in some countries. But by the end of summer, researchers will understand how it spreads, testing will be more sophisticated and public health officials and politicians will be better able to control an outbreak without draconian measures, they say.
The risks? Problems for governments having to run high levels of stimulus that could create debt loops and potentially a political crisis in Europe, if southern economies don’t get enough financial solidarity to fight their outbreaks.
And then there are the mental issues surrounding isolation. If more lockdowns are required, countries may be required to address that big issue, which could exacerbate physical problems.
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