The 3D sensing technology is booming — and evolving in important new directions
By Dr. Sam Heidari, CEO of Lumotive
Lidar is everywhere: the 3D sensing technology is now built into smartphones, used to help self-driving cars, and even used to peer through dense jungles to reveal ancient ruins lying beneath the foliage. Researchers at Yole Intelligence say that commercial lidar technologies are already worth at least $2.1 billion, and that the market will likely expand to at least $6.3 billion by 2027.
Not only has lidar gone mainstream, it’s also continuing to evolve fast. We’re finding new uses for lidar all the time, in sectors ranging from consumer toys to serious industrial and defense applications. We’re also starting to see specific industrial applications where lidar holds great potential. The rise of autonomous trucks, delivery robots, and warehouse Automated Mobile Robots (AMRs) such as forklifts in the logistics industry is predicted to fuel the growth of the lidar market. Specifically, the logistics sector's lidar segment is forecasted to grow from $72M in 2021 to $344M in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%, according to the same Yole report.
So where does lidar stand today? Let’s take a look at some of the most important coming developments in this important and fast-changing field.
Automotive applications will drive widespread adoption
The integration of lidar into Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) is essential to realize the full potential of autonomous vehicles. As we progress through the stages of vehicular automation, lidar's significance grows. From enhancing basic ADAS functions, such as Adaptive Cruise Control, to forming the backbone of complex automated systems, such as autonomous valet or self-parking, lidar acts as the vehicle's “eyes,” providing high-precision spatial and depth data. The burgeoning demand for safer, more efficient mobility solutions underscores why the fastest growth for lidar is expected within the ADAS application sector.
Moreover, advancements in solid-state lidar technology promise more affordability and design flexibility, promoting wider adoption in vehicles. With its precision detection and emerging accessibility, lidar is set to strengthen its position as a cornerstone of ADAS and autonomous vehicle technologies, driving us toward a truly autonomous future.
Smart infrastructure will become a billion-dollar sector
In addition to automotive applications and topographical scanning, smart infrastructure will soon become another billion-dollar application for lidar technologies. Smart cities are one of the key use-cases for lidar: a number of cities in Asia, the Americas, and Europe are already using lidar for monitoring and managing both pedestrian and traffic crossings, with proponents seeing lidar as a powerful but privacy-friendly alternative to ubiquitous security cameras.
We’ll also see lidar used more frequently in construction, managing energy infrastructure, and operating autonomous robots in factory settings and logistics applications. Automation and safety monitoring will be key, but important industry-specific use-cases will also emerge: in advanced warehouse management systems, for instance, lidar is already integral to the operation of autonomous forklifts. These sophisticated machines use lidar to simultaneously avoid collisions and build real-time 3D maps of the warehouse environment, enabling precise location of inventory and automated picking. This not only improves efficiency, but also reduces the risk of mishandling and inventory loss.
Solid-state lidar will become a must-have
While traditional actuated-mirror lidar systems have been a mainstay in certain applications, their limitations are becoming increasingly apparent. These systems, while functional, are not necessarily effective due to their substantial size, calibration issues, and maintenance requirements. They can also be more expensive than anticipated, taking into account the total cost of ownership, including repairs and downtime.
On the other hand, solid-state lidar represents a significant paradigm shift. These devices, far more compact and requiring less calibration, present a solution that's not only cost-effective but also highly reliable. With instantaneous beam steering and highly compact optical designs, they offer an ability to respond to rapid changes in their environment, thus unlocking new features and capabilities. As the underlying technologies continue to evolve and become more cost-effective, we're likely to witness a significant shift in preference, making solid-state lidar the new standard in remote sensing.
Software-defined lidar will enable and expand broad adoption
The increasingly dominant role of software in building and deploying intelligent systems can be seen across many sectors. Many experts agree that software defined vehicles are the automotive platform of the future, where powerful centralized computing centers are connected to arrays of cost-effective sensors. Similarly, AMRs and other automated industrial robots benefit by using software to control machinery and move goods instead of human operators.
Lidar sensors provide incredibly accurate 3D measurements of the world around them. Impressive as this feat may be, as software becomes the brain of these intelligent systems, it is crucial for lidar to be able to not only fit this model of flexibility and adaptability, but to enhance the capabilities of the platforms that depend on it. Software-definable lidar will allow the sensors themselves to be configured optimally for the application, environment, and situation at hand. As an added bonus, the cost of deployments will go down, as a single sensor product can be used in many different scenarios by simply reprogramming it for the task at hand. This not only allows system operators to use fewer sensors, configured optimally for their needs, but also increases lidar unit volumes globally and lowers sensor cost globally through economies of scale.
Lidar will connect AI to the physical world
As artificial intelligence (AI) continues its stratospheric growth and expansion into all aspects of modern life, lidar has the potential to serve as a critical bridge between the digital realm and the physical world. Lidar sensors’ ability to produce vast volumes of data, often reaching millions of measurements per second, creates a fertile environment of training sets, digital twins, and virtual models for AI to thrive offline. The breakthroughs underway now utilize AI to interact directly with the physical world in real time just as we do, but with 3D sensing provided by lidar.
The role of lidar in this context is becoming a part of our society, with self-driving vehicles navigating our roads and autonomous robots transporting our goods behind the scenes. Here, the machine learning and neural network technologies that power AI are being utilized and continuously enhanced to interpret lidar data for improved 3D object detection and recognition. The significance of lidar is not confined to being a mere data provider. Instead, it serves as the eyes of automation, facilitating AI's interaction with the physical environment and enabling real-time operation.
Dr. Sam Heidari, CEO of Lumotive, an optical semiconductor company enabling the next generation of 3D sensing.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.