- USD/CAD posts outside-daily reversal off Fibonacci resistance- risk is lower sub 1.3288
- Check o ut our 2018 USD projections in our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinar s on Mondays at 12:30GMT
In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the weekly chart for the US Dollar vs the Canadian Dollar ( USD/CAD) . Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.
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USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart
Notes: In last month's Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar , we highlighted a breach above confluence resistance in USD/CAD at 1.3103/32 where the 100% extension of the advance converges on the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 range. Price rallied into the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2016 decline at 1.3376 with the Loonie posting an outside-day reversal of this threshold yesterday- bearish .
Price is now testing the 1.3103/32 threshold as support and a break lower here would suggest a larger correction is underway targeting the slope confluence just lower around ~ 1.2970 backed by the 200-week moving average / channel support at ~ 1.2830 s.
For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on B uilding a T rading S trategy
Bottom line: Look for resist ahead of 1.3288 (61.8% retracement of the recent decline) if this is going to work with a break below 1.31 needed to fuel the next leg lower. Intraday trading levels remain unchanged from last week's USD/CAD Technical Outlook . Keep in mind we get the release of both US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Canadian employment on Friday with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in the pair.
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USD/CAD Trader Positioning
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at -2.94 (25.4% of traders are long) - bullish reading
- T raders have remained net-short since May 22 nd ; price has moved 2.9% higher since then
- Long positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 13.5% lower from last week
- Short positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 18.4% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD / CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet 3 traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD / CAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short .
See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Le arn more about sentiment!
Relevant USD/CAD Data Releases
Economic Calendar - for the l atest e conomic d evelopments and u pcoming event ri sk
Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the US Dollar (DXY)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the Euro (EUR/USD)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the British Pound (GBP/USD)
--- Written by Michael Boutros , Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at email@example.com
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.