USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart
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Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

DailyFX.com -

In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the weekly chart for the US Dollar vs the Canadian Dollar ( USD/CAD) . Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart

USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: In last month's Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar , we highlighted a breach above confluence resistance in USD/CAD at 1.3103/32 where the 100% extension of the advance converges on the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 range. Price rallied into the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2016 decline at 1.3376 with the Loonie posting an outside-day reversal of this threshold yesterday- bearish .

Price is now testing the 1.3103/32 threshold as support and a break lower here would suggest a larger correction is underway targeting the slope confluence just lower around ~ 1.2970 backed by the 200-week moving average / channel support at ~ 1.2830 s.

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Bottom line: Look for resist ahead of 1.3288 (61.8% retracement of the recent decline) if this is going to work with a break below 1.31 needed to fuel the next leg lower. Intraday trading levels remain unchanged from last week's USD/CAD Technical Outlook . Keep in mind we get the release of both US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Canadian employment on Friday with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in the pair.

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USD/CAD Trader Positioning

USD/CAD Trader Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at -2.94 (25.4% of traders are long) - bullish reading
  • T raders have remained net-short since May 22 nd ; price has moved 2.9% higher since then
  • Long positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 13.5% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 18.4% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD / CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet 3 traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD / CAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short .

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Le arn more about sentiment!

Relevant USD/CAD Data Releases

USD/CAD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - for the l atest e conomic d evelopments and u pcoming event ri sk

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros , Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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