SMR

Wall Street Keeps Underestimating This Monster Stock. Don't Make the Same Mistake.

Key Points

At the start of April last year, Wall Street analysts were bullish on NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) stock. Consensus estimates had an average 12-month price target of around $17. That average predicted upside of around 30% versus the prevailing trading price of around $13.

But then NuScale Power stock went on a massive run. By July, shares were priced above $50, having risen more than 250% in value in less than four months. Analysts scrambled to update their estimates.

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Then something unexpected happened. Shares gradually shed more than 80% of their value. Today, NuScale Power stock trades at just $10 per share. Analysts have once again rushed to update their price targets. The average 12-month price target is now around $18 per share, implying a growth potential of around 80%. The most bullish analyst has a price target of $28, while the most bearish analyst has a price target of just $11.50.

In short, analysts don't know what to make of NuScale Power stock. They couldn't predict the stock's movement one year ago, and they're still split on what will happen next. But if you're willing to commit to a long holding period, today's discounted valuation could make NuScale Power a monster stock over the next decade and more.

There's one growth catalyst in particular to pay attention to now.

Two small modular nuclear reactors.

Image source: Getty Images.

NuScale Power's future is tied directly to the AI revolution

From 2005 to 2020, U.S. electricity generation barely budged. This flatlining came after a 50-year period of consistently rising production. What changed? Slowing population growth and rising efficiency standards are two primary causes for the growth stagnation. But after a 15-year stretch of minimal gains, electricity generation suddenly started rising again. And over the next few decades, we could see the biggest buildout of new electricity generation facilities in nearly a half-decade.

From 2024 to 2030, electricity demand is expected to grow by around 4% annually. A huge portion of that growth is from one catalyst: artificial intelligence. AI models need a huge amount of compute to train and operate. Data centers deliver most of this compute power, and they need a ton of electricity to keep things cool and running properly.

By many accounts, the current electricity grid simply isn't robust enough to support the massive increase in data centers expected over the coming years. New forms of generation will be necessary. This area is where NuScale Power hopes to capitalize.

NuScale Power specializes in an approach to nuclear energy called SMRs -- an acronym for small modular reactors. According to some estimates, adding nuclear energy to the global power grid represents a $10 trillion opportunity. SMRs are expected to play only a part in that overall nuclear renaissance. But the long-term opportunity will still represent hundreds of billions of dollars in value.

Here's the thing that Wall Street analysts are constantly getting wrong. Predicting what will happen to SMR stocks like NuScale Power over the short term is next to impossible. No one knows when the next customer will be acquired, or what the terms of the deal will be. NuScale Power's first plant isn't expected to begin generating power until at least 2030. And the company has faced plenty of failures in the past, including customer cancellations.

The story of NuScale Power and SMR stocks in general will be measured in decades, not years. The ultimate upside potential is truly massive. But don't think there's easy money to be made like many Wall Street analysts would have you believe.

Should you buy stock in NuScale Power right now?

Before you buy stock in NuScale Power, consider this:

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Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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