If there’s an AI bubble, the memo never got to Vertiv (NYSE: VRT) or the companies with which it does business. The company delivered an earnings report and guidance that shows demand for its cooling systems is strong. That supports the idea that in this, or in any market, it pays to buy the best.
Vertiv’s headline numbers were mixed compared to estimates. On the top line, revenue of $2.88 billion came in a fraction below the $2.89 billion that was forecast. However, that was still 22.5% higher on a year-over-year (YOY) basis. Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.36 beat expectations for EPS of $1.29 and were 37% higher YOY.
Shares of VRT stock popped 12% in the premarket session. That momentum continued into the trading day. At midday, the stock is up over 18% after strong labor data temporarily mutes concerns over the economy in general and technology stocks, in particular.
Investors who were hoping for a buy-the-dip opportunity will have to wait a little longer. However, with the stock showing signs of being extended, investors will want to watch VRT stock closely for any pullback that can be used as a buying opportunity.
An Essential Technology for Data Centers
Vertiv manufactures and services equipment and software that support power availability, thermal management, and information technology (IT) infrastructure management across a variety of end markets, including data centers.
The company’s water-cooled rack systems, along with other products, are critical to meeting the demands of artificial intelligence (AI). This is a demand that has to be met 24/7, 365 days a year. That generates a lot of heat, which is why companies need Vertiv’s products.
That demand showed up in the earnings report:
- Trailing twelve-month (TTM) organic orders growth of approximately 81% YOY.
- Fourth quarter orders up about 252% YOY and approximately 117% sequentially.
- Book-to-bill ratio of approximately 2.9x.
But the strong rally in VRT stock is due to institutional excitement over the company’s 2026 forecast.
- The company has a strong backlog of $15 billion, up about $7.8 billion (109% YOY) and up 57% sequentially.
- Vertiv reported robust global orders pipeline growth in the fourth quarter across all product technologies and regions. The growth was primarily fueled by continued expansion in AI and data center infrastructure investments
- Vertiv expects 2026 orders to be up YOY.
- 2025 pricing exceeded inflation, and Vertiv expects that trend to continue in 2026.
In the immediate aftermath of the report, the Vertiv analyst forecasts on MarketBeat don’t show any new upgrades or price target increases. However, the trend has been bullish, with price targets coming in well ahead of the consensus price target of $187.89.
That said, at $237.46 as of this writing, the stock is well ahead of not only the consensus price, but even the highest analyst target. It’s likely that analysts were holding off on planting their flag with the bulls or bears before the report. Now it seems likely that sentiment will shift to the bullish side, perhaps aggressively.
How Should Investors Play VRT Stock?
After earnings, VRT stock has broken above a level of around $200 that has acted as resistance. That confirms the bullish trend reversal that started in mid-December.
However, the stock looks extended, which means there are rising odds that investors could see a mean reversion. The latest rally has pushed VRT stock above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and upper Bollinger band.
Plus, the relative strength index is around 76, which indicates overbought momentum. That said, the MACD’s histogram is expanding, suggesting that more impulse buying may be ahead before a pullback.
Existing VRT shareholders may want to use this surge as an opportunity to trim into strength, take some profits, and wait for a decisive drop below the 20-day SMA as a buying point.
For prospective buyers, waiting for a pullback to the prior resistance between $195 and $205 would be the play. However, if the stock begins to consolidate rather than drop at this higher level, that could signal that a newer base has formed.
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