Veles Water Weekly Report - Mar 26, 2026

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NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE
 

The new NQH2O index level of $247.60 was published on March 25th, down $14.00 or 5.53% from the previous week. The April contract is considered the front month. The futures prices changed from closing at a premium of $3.40 to a premium of $17.40 versus the index over the past week.The new NQH2O index level of $247.60 was published on March 25th, down $14.00 or 5.53% from the previous week. The April contract is considered the front month. The futures prices changed from closing at a premium of $3.40 to a premium of $17.40 versus the index over the past week.

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
 

Trend Overview

Current Price: 265 (0.00%)

The index continues to build on last week’s stabilisation, with price holding slightly higher and beginning to form a more defined short-term recovery structure. While momentum remains supportive in the near term, the broader trend is still bearish.

Momentum

• The Stochastic Oscillator shows %K at 100 and %D at 100, indicating fully extended short-term momentum.
• Compared to last week, momentum remains strong but is now persistently overbought, rather than transitioning.
• This suggests continued upside pressure, but also increases the likelihood of consolidation if price does not break higher.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5: 265
• SMA 10: 261
• SMA 20: 259
• SMA 30: 257

Analysis

• Price is now above all short-term moving averages, confirming strengthening short-term structure.
• The 257–261 range has firmly transitioned into support, marking a clear improvement from prior weeks.
• The upward slope in the shorter averages reflects a developing recovery trend.
• Continued holding above this zone supports further upside progression.

Long-Term (SMA 100–200)

• SMA 100: 299
• SMA 120: 320
• SMA 150: 348
• SMA 200: 353

Analysis

• Price remains below all major long-term moving averages, so the broader trend remains bearish.
• However, the distance to the 100-day SMA at 299 continues to narrow, indicating gradual improvement.
• The 299–353 range remains a significant resistance zone.
• A move toward 300 is now the next structural test.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K: 100
• %D: 100

Analysis

• Momentum is fully extended and remains pinned at extreme levels.
• This confirms strong upside pressure but also signals a potential near-term pause or consolidation.
• No bearish crossover is visible yet.

Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance Zones

• 275–285: First structural resistance zone.
• 299–306: Key medium-term resistance at the 100-day SMA.
• 320–353: Major long-term resistance cluster.

Support Zones

• 257–261: Short-term moving average support cluster.
• 240–245: Next downside support if the structure fails.

Summary

The Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures are trading at 265, continuing to show incremental improvement from prior weeks. Price is now firmly above the short-term moving averages, with the 257–261 zone acting as a well-defined support base.

Momentum remains extremely strong, though fully extended, suggesting the market may begin to consolidate unless further upside follows.

Despite the improving short-term structure, the broader trend remains bearish while price sits below the long-term moving averages between 299 and 353. A move into the 275–285 range would confirm continued recovery, while a break toward 300 would represent the first meaningful test of the longer-term downtrend.

Technically, the market is progressing from base formation into early recovery, but has not yet broken the broader bearish structure.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
 

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the April contract daily future volatility high has been 1.18%.

For the week ending on March 25^th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 8.03% to the index, up 0.46% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 6.78% to the index, down 6.23%. The one-week futures volatility is at a discount of 4.05%, a reversal of 18.07% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.

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