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NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE
The new NQH2O index level of $261.60 was published on March 18th, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The March contract settled at the new index level and the April contract is considered the front month. The futures prices changed from closing at a discount of $21.60 to a premium of $3.40 versus the index over the past week.
Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.
| Apr 26 | 263@268 |
| Jun 26 | 285@310 |
H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
Trend Overview
Current Price: 265 (0.00%)
Price has moved higher from last week’s levels and is now showing continued short-term stabilisation with slight upward progression. The market is beginning to edge higher from the base that formed around the mid-250s, although the broader trend remains bearish.
Momentum
- The Stochastic Oscillator shows %K at 100 and %D around 66, indicating strong but slightly moderating upside momentum.
- Compared to last week, momentum remains elevated but is no longer fully synchronised at extremes, suggesting early signs of controlled continuation rather than a fresh surge.
- No bearish crossover is present, so short-term strength remains intact.
Moving Averages
Short-Term (SMA 5–30)
SMA 5: 257
SMA 10: 258
SMA 20: 257
SMA 30: 255
Analysis
Price is now above all short-term moving averages, confirming strengthening short-term structure.
The 255–258 zone has transitioned from resistance into support, marking a clear improvement from last week’s consolidation phase.
The upward slope of the shorter averages suggests the rebound is gaining structure.
Holding above this band supports further upside continuation.
Long-Term (SMA 100–200)
SMA 100: 306
SMA 120: 328
SMA 150: 354
SMA 200: 354
Analysis
Price remains below all long-term moving averages, so the broader trend is still bearish.
However, the gap to the 100-day SMA at 306 is narrowing slightly, reflecting incremental recovery.
The 306–354 range continues to act as a major resistance zone.
A move toward 300+ would be the next structural test.
Stochastic Oscillator
%K: 100
%D: ~66
Analysis
Momentum remains strong but is beginning to normalise from extreme levels.
This suggests the move is transitioning from impulsive rebound to controlled continuation or consolidation.
As long as %K remains elevated without crossing below %D, upside pressure persists.
Resistance & Support Levels
Resistance Zones
275–285: First structural resistance zone from the recent breakdown area.
300–306: Key medium-term resistance at the 100-day SMA.
328–354: Major long-term resistance cluster.
Support Zones
255–258: Short-term moving average support cluster (now firmly established).
240–245: Next downside support if the current structure fails.
Summary
The Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures are trading at 265, showing continued improvement from last week’s stabilisation phase. Price has now moved decisively above the short-term moving average cluster, turning the 255–258 zone into support.
Momentum remains strong, though no longer at extreme synchronisation, indicating a shift from sharp rebound to more controlled upside movement.
Despite the short-term improvement, the broader trend remains bearish while price sits below the 306–354 resistance zone. A move into the 275–285 region would be the next test of strength, followed by the more significant 300–306 level.
In technical terms, the market is transitioning from base formation into early-stage recovery, but has not yet broken the broader downtrend.
H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
DAILY VOLATILITY
Over the last week the March contract daily future volatility high has been 1.18%.
Asset | 1 Year (%) | 2 Month (%) | 1 month (%) | 1 week (%) |
NQH2O Index | 21.59% | 6.50% | 0.04% | 0.03% |
H2O Futures | N/A | 14.07% | 13.05% | 14.05% |
For the week ending on March 18th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 7.57% to the index, down 0.17% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 13.01% to the index, down 0.91%. The one-week futures volatility is at a premium of 14.02%, a reversal of 14.01% to the index volatility.
The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.
Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.
Disclaimer:
Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.
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