Veles Water Weekly Report - Mar 12, 2026

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NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE

The new NQH2O index level of $261.60 was published on March 11^th, up $0.07 or 0.03% from the previous week. The March contract is considered the front month. The futures prices closed at a discount of $3.35 to $3.60 versus the index over the past week.

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

NQH2O INDEX HISTORY

The graph above shows the CME water contracts for March 2026 and June 2026 superimposed over historical NASDAQ Veles water indices.  A red dotted line has been added to interpolate between the June-June contracts for the 2025-2026 water year.

(John H Dolan, CME Market Maker)

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT

Trend Overview

Current Price: 258 (0.00%)

The index is continuing to stabilise following the recent sharp decline. Price is now consolidating around the short-term moving average cluster, suggesting the market is attempting to form a short-term base. However, the broader trend structure remains bearish.

Momentum

• The Stochastic Oscillator shows %K at 100 and %D at 100, indicating extremely strong short-term upside momentum.
• Momentum has moved from deeply oversold conditions to fully extended on the upside.
• While this reflects strong buying pressure during the rebound, readings at this level are typically unsustainable without continued price expansion.
• The current configuration suggests momentum may begin to consolidate unless price continues pushing higher.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5: 258

• SMA 10: 258

• SMA 20: 256

• SMA 30: 254

Analysis

• Price is sitting directly on the 5- and 10-day SMAs and remains above the 20- and 30-day averages.

• The 254–258 zone now forms a short-term support cluster.

• Holding above this region supports the developing rebound structure.

• A sustained move above 260–265 would strengthen the short-term recovery phase.

Long-Term (SMA 100–200)

• SMA 100: 314

• SMA 120: 336

• SMA 150: 359

• SMA 200: 356

Analysis

• Price remains well below all major long-term moving averages.

• The 314–359 region forms a significant stacked resistance zone.

• The broader trend remains bearish until price can reclaim the 100-day moving average at 314.

• Any near-term rally should still be viewed within the context of a larger downtrend.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K: 100

• %D: 100

Analysis

• Momentum is fully extended on the upside, confirming the strength of the recent rebound.

• However, stochastic readings pinned at 100 typically precede consolidation or sideways movement unless price breaks higher quickly.

• No bearish crossover is visible yet.

Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance Zones

• 265–275: First structural resistance zone from the recent breakdown.

• 314: 100-day moving average and first major medium-term resistance.

• 336–359: Major long-term resistance cluster.

Support Zones

• 254–258: Short-term moving average support cluster.

• 240–245: Next structural support if the current rebound fails.

Summary

The Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures are trading at 258, with the market continuing to stabilise following the recent decline. Price is holding above the 20- and 30-day moving averages, while sitting directly on the 5- and 10-day averages, suggesting a developing short-term base.

Momentum indicators remain extremely strong, though the stochastic oscillator at 100 signals that the rebound may be approaching a short-term overextended condition.

Despite the improvement in short-term structure, the broader trend remains bearish while price sits well below the long-term moving averages between 314 and 359. A sustained break above 265–275 would strengthen the recovery narrative, while reclaiming 314 would be required to suggest a more meaningful trend shift.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS 

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the March contract daily future volatility high has been 1.18%.

For the week ending on March 11th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 7.74% to the index, down 0.16% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 13.92% to the index, up 0.03%. The one-week futures volatility is at a discount of 0.01%, a reversal of  13.13% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.

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