Veles Water Weekly Report - Jan 7, 2026

NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE

Price Chart Based upon Daily Close

The new NQH2O index level of $304.90 was published on January 7^th, down $4.95 or 1.60% from the previous week. The January contract is considered the front month. The futures prices closed at a discount of $9.90 to $24.85 versus the index over the past week. 

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT

Trend Overview

Current Price: $295 (+1.72%)

The index has bounced from a recent low near $285 and is now trading at $295, attempting a short-term recovery. This is a modest rebound, but price remains deeply below all medium- and long-term moving averages, and the broader trend is still decisively bearish.

Momentum

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K = 100.00
• %D = 41.52

Analysis:

• %K has spiked sharply to 100, a textbook oversold-to-overbought reversal signal.
• This vertical move reflects an abrupt change in momentum, potentially signalling the start of a short-term recovery, but the move is unconfirmed without follow-through price action.
• The oscillator suggests a stretched move up, which could lead to either continuation if supported by volume or a rapid retracement.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5 = 290
• SMA 10 = 288
• SMA 20 = 301
• SMA 30 = 319

Analysis:

• Price ($295) is now above both the 5-day and 10-day SMAs, a short-term bullish shift.
• However, it remains below the 20-day SMA ($301) and well below the 30-day SMA ($319).
• This puts immediate resistance in the 301–319 range, which represents a key short-term supply zone.
• All moving averages are still sloping downward, showing no trend reversal yet, but the break above the shortest SMAs could be an early indication of a base forming.

Long-Term (SMA 100–200)

• SMA 100 = 398
• SMA 120 = 397
• SMA 150 = 385
• SMA 200 = 385

Analysis:

• Price remains deeply below all long-term moving averages, confirming that the primary trend is still bearish.
• The 385–398 zone represents major long-term resistance.
• A move back above 385 would be required to indicate a structural shift in the longer-term trend.

Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance Zones

• $301–$319: SMA 20 and 30 resistance band
• $385–$398: Long-term resistance cluster (SMA 150–200–120–100)

Support Levels

• $285: Most recent local low
• $270–$275: Potential psychological support zone
• Below $270, there is no obvious support, increasing downside risk significantly

Summary

• The index has bounced to $295, now above its 5-day and 10-day SMAs — a small but important technical improvement.
• Momentum has flipped sharply to the upside as shown by the Stochastic Oscillator, but volume is still weak, and key resistance looms at $301–$319.
• Price remains in a bear market structure, with major overhead resistance at the 385–398 range.
• A daily close above $301, and preferably over $319, would be the first real sign of trend reversal.
• Until then, this is best viewed as a potential relief rally within a broader downtrend.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the January contract daily future volatility high has been 1.24%.

For the week ending on January 7th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 9.63% to the index, up 0.03% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 6.06% to the index, up 3.40%. The one-week futures volatility is at a premium of 1.38% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

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