Veles Water Weekly Report - Jan 29, 2026

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NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE
 

_{Price Chart Based upon Daily Close}

The new NQH2O index level of $264.85 was published on January 28^th, down $8.17 or 2.99% from the previous week. The February contract is considered the front month. The futures prices closed at a discount of $16.02 to $25.02 versus the index over the past week. 

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
 

 Trend Overview

Current Price: 248 (0.00% on the day)

Price has paused after a steep decline, closing flat on the day. The broader structure remains decisively bearish with no sign of recovery.

Momentum

Stochastic Oscillator (14,1,3):

• %K: 0.00
• %D: 0.00

Analysis:

Momentum remains entirely suppressed. Both %K and %D are pinned to the bottom of the range, indicating the trend is still in its most extreme oversold condition. There is no signal yet of reversal or mean reversion. This configuration implies continued selling pressure or at best, consolidation at lows.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5: 251
• SMA 10: 267
• SMA 20: 279
• SMA 30: 284

Analysis:

• Price is below all short-term SMAs, confirming continued short-term weakness.
• The moving averages are in a clean downward slope and descending order (SMA 5 < SMA 10 < SMA 20 < SMA 30), which is a textbook bearish alignment.
• The 251–284 zone forms a near-term resistance cluster, which will likely cap any immediate upside unless decisively broken.

Long-Term (SMA 100–200)

• SMA 100: 371
• SMA 150: 379
• SMA 200: 376

Analysis:

• Price is significantly below all long-term moving averages, highlighting a full breakdown of the broader trend.
• These averages are beginning to flatten or turn down, and the 371–379 area marks a major structural resistance zone.
• A move above this zone would be required to suggest a long-term trend repair — which, at this stage, appears distant.

Key Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance Zones

• 251–284: Short-term resistance from the stacked SMA 5, 10, 20, and 30.
• 371–379: Long-term resistance formed by SMA 100–200.

Support Zones

• Immediate support: ~240 psychological level (near current price); no strong structural support visible in this region.
• Next historical support: ~215–220 zone (prior low region from 2023).
• Below that: Price enters an untested zone with limited historical support.

Summary

The Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures remain firmly in a downtrend, now trading at 248, below all major moving averages and with no reversal signals. Short-term resistance is stacked between 251–284, while long-term structural resistance looms much higher at 371–379.
The Stochastic Oscillator is fully depressed, with both lines at zero, suggesting that downside momentum has been relentless. While this reflects an oversold condition, there is no confirmation of reversal, and the risk of further breakdown remains.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
 

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the February contract daily future volatility high has been 2.77%.

For the week ending on January 28^th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 8.75% to the index, up 0.02% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 8.26% to the index, a reversal of 14.13%. The one-week futures volatility is at a premium of 3.74% down 1.41% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.

Disclaimer:

Nasdaq^® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.