Veles Water Weekly Report - Jan 22, 2026

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NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE

_{Price Chart Based upon Daily Close}

The new NQH2O index level of $273.02 was published on January 21^st, down $13.23 or 4.62% from the previous week. The January contract settled at yesterday’s new index level and the February contract is considered the front month. The futures prices closed at a premium of $7.75 to $13.75 versus the index over the past week.

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT

Trend Overview

Current Price: 257 (▼ −5.86%)

Momentum

• The recent price action reflects continued downside pressure with a sharp daily decline.
• The Stochastic Oscillator shows %K at 0.00 and %D at 33.33, indicating that momentum remains bearish but is no longer in deeply oversold territory.
• There is no confirmed reversal signal. Price remains technically weak.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5: 284
• SMA 10: 289
• SMA 20: 288
• SMA 30: 299

Analysis:

• Price is well below all short-term moving averages, confirming the short-term downtrend.
• The short-term SMAs are aligned in descending order, reinforcing the bearish structure.
• The 284–299 SMA zone now serves as a resistance cluster, likely capping any attempt at short-term strength.
• A reclaim of 284–289 is needed before a meaningful short-term reversal can be considered.

Long-Term (SMA 100–200)

• SMA 100: 381
• SMA 150: 382
• SMA 200: 379
• SMA 120: 403

Analysis:

• Price is far below all major long-term moving averages, indicating a breakdown in medium- and long-term trend structure.
• The 379–403 range is now a major stacked resistance zone comprised of long-term SMAs.
• Until price can break back above 379–382, broader trend strength remains compromised.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K: 0.00
• %D: 33.33

Analysis:

• %K remains at zero, showing that downside momentum was strong prior to the recent slight uptick in %D.
• The current configuration suggests exhaustion in the most extreme oversold phase, but no confirmed reversal.
• A crossover of %K above %D and a move above 20 would be an early sign of potential trend shift.

Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance Zones

• 284–299: Short-term resistance cluster formed by SMA 5, 10, 20, and 30.
• 379–403: Long-term resistance zone including the 100, 150, and 200 SMAs.

Support Zones

• Near-Term Support: ~250 horizontal cluster from recent lows.
• Next Major Support: 330 horizontal level (prior pivot support on the chart).
• Below 250 there is limited clear historical support, increasing downside risk if 250 breaks.

Summary

The Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures remain technically weak, trading at 257 and below all short- and long-term SMAs. Short-term moving averages now act as resistance, and the SMAs between 284 and 299 will likely cap any near-term strength. Long-term SMAs between 379 and 403 form a heavy overhead resistance environment, underscoring the continued bearish structure.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the extreme low-momentum phase has not yet produced a reversal signal, reinforcing that the path of least resistance remains down until price can reclaim key support-turned-resistance levels.

Key levels to watch:

• A reclaim of 284–289 would be needed to suggest a short-term momentum shift.
• A break above 379–403 would be required to argue for broader trend recovery.
• On the downside, failure to hold ~250 exposes the chart to further decline before finding new structural support.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the January contract daily future volatility high has been 7.80%.

For the week ending on January 14^th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 8.73% to the index, down 0.90% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 6.06% to the index, a reversal of 11.21%. The one-week futures volatility is at a premium of 5.15 % a reversal of 12.31% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.

Disclaimer:

Nasdaq^® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. The information contained above is provided for informational and educational purposes only, and nothing contained herein should be construed as investment advice, either on behalf of a particular security or an overall investment strategy. Neither Nasdaq, Inc. nor any of its affiliates makes any recommendation to buy or sell any security or any representation about the financial condition of any company. Statements regarding Nasdaq-listed companies or Nasdaq proprietary indexes are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should undertake their own due diligence and carefully evaluate companies before investing. ADVICE FROM A SECURITIES PROFESSIONAL IS STRONGLY ADVISED.