Veles Water Weekly Report - Feb 26, 2026

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NQH2O™ INDEX PRICE vs H2O FUTURES PRICE
 

The new NQH2O index level of $261.35 was published on February 25^th, up $0.09 or 0.03% from the previous week. The March contract is considered the front month. The futures prices closed at a discount of $4.34 to $4.44 versus the index over the past week.

Below are the bid offer prices on different expiries being quoted in the market.

NQH2O INDEX HISTORY
 

The graph above shows the CME water contracts for March 2026 and June 2026 superimposed over historical NASDAQ Veles water indices. A red dotted line has been added to interpolate between the June-June contracts for the 2025-2026 water year.

(John H Dolan, CME Market Maker)

H2O FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
 

Current Price: 257 (0.00%)

Price is consolidating after the recent rebound. The broader structure remains bearish, but short-term stabilisation continues above the immediate moving average cluster.

Momentum

• The Stochastic Oscillator shows %K at 100 and %D at 100, indicating extreme short-term momentum strength.
• Momentum has moved from oversold to fully extended on the upside.
• This reflects a strong rebound phase, though readings at 100 also suggest the move may be short-term overextended.
• No bearish crossover is present yet, so immediate upside pressure remains intact.

Moving Averages

Short-Term (SMA 5–30)

• SMA 5: 257
• SMA 10: 253
• SMA 20: 251
• SMA 30: 258

Analysis

• Price is sitting at the 5-day SMA and slightly above the 10- and 20-day SMAs, indicating short-term support is holding.
• However, price remains just below the 30-day SMA at 258, which acts as the immediate resistance ceiling.
• A clean break above 258 would confirm short-term continuation higher.
• Failure to hold 251–253 would weaken the recovery attempt.

Long-Term (SMA 100–200)

• SMA 100: 333
• SMA 120: 352
• SMA 150: 368
• SMA 200: 361

Analysis

• Price remains significantly below all long-term moving averages.
• The 333–368 range forms a major stacked resistance band.
• The medium- and long-term trend remains bearish until price can reclaim at least the 100-day SMA at 333.
• Current strength is still counter-trend relative to the broader structure.

Stochastic Oscillator

• %K: 100
• %D: 100

Analysis

• Momentum is fully extended to the upside in the short term.
• However, readings at 100 also increase the probability of short-term consolidation or pullback unless price breaks above 258 quickly.
• No rollover signal is present yet.

Resistance & Support Levels

Resistance Zones

• 258: Immediate resistance at the 30-day SMA.
• 333: 100-day SMA and first major medium-term resistance.
• 352–368: Heavy long-term resistance cluster.

Support Zones

• 251–253: Short-term support at the 10- and 20-day SMAs.
• ~240: Next structural support if the short-term cluster fails.

Summary

The Nasdaq Veles California Water Index Futures are holding at 257, with short-term momentum fully extended to the upside. Price is stabilising above the 10- and 20-day moving averages, but remains capped just below the 30-day SMA at 258.

A break above 258 would strengthen the recovery and open the path toward the 333 region. However, the broader trend remains bearish while price sits well below the major long-term moving averages.

Technically, this remains a developing rebound inside a larger downtrend, with short-term momentum strong but approaching overextension.

H2O FUTURES AND NQH2O INDEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS
 

DAILY VOLATILITY

Over the last week the March contract daily future volatility high has been 1.18%.

For the week ending on February 25^th, the two-month futures volatility is at a premium of 7.90% to the index, 0.36% from the previous week. The one-month futures volatility is at a premium of 13.92% to the index, up 0.30%. The one-week futures volatility is at a premium of 1.66%, down 13.12% to the index volatility.

The above prices are all HISTORIC VOLATILITIES. All readings refer to closing prices as quoted by CME.

Note the attachment is not an inducement to trade and Veles Water does not give advice on investments.

Disclaimer:

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